A Systematic Review of the Factors Affecting the Cyclone Evacuation Decision Process in Bangladesh
Md. Nasif Ahsan*,**,***,†, Kuniyoshi Takeuchi*, Karina Vink*, and Miho Ohara*
*International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)
under the auspices of UNESCO, Public Works Research Institute
1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba 305-8516, Ibaraki, Japan
**National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Disaster Management Program (DMP)
***Economics Discipline, Khulna University, Bangladesh
Researchers are investigating a broad spectrum of factors affecting positively and/or negatively the evacuation decision-making process occurring after people at risk receive cyclone warnings and advisories. Previous studies suggest that early warnings themselves do not propagate evacuation processes to be investigated but, rather, that human risk perceptions do so. This in turn encourages the sociopsychological dimensions of risk perception to be evaluated, which must be done within a country’s own cultural context. In applying content analysis here, we review the literature on evacuation decision-making processes during rapidonset hazards, i.e., tropical cyclones, in coastal Bangladesh. We focus on three broad overlapping themes – early warning, risk perception, and evacuation decision-making. Major content-analysis findings suggest that two things – a lack of credibility in early warning messages and an inefficient dissemination process – tend to affect the risk perception of people at risk and are likely to eventually determine the success of evacuation decision-making. Findings also show that different socioeconomic and socio-cultural issues related to risk perception appear to be more influential than formal warning messages in propagating decisions to evacuate during a cyclone. Based on these results, we suggest specific policy recommendations for improving local evacuation efficiency.
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