Science Communication of Hazards with Scientific Uncertainty: In the Cases of Volcanic Activity
International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University
6-6-11 Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8578, Japan
This paper studies cases in Japan, focusing on information on volcanic activities as well as other natural disasters. This information is given as an example of scientific communication in times of scientific uncertainty when there is an urgent need for judgments. This paper also considers the usage of volcanic activity information by residents of Kuchinoerabu Island in 2015, from the time their volcano became active to when the island was fully evacuated. The results suggest that it is important not only to establish relationships with highly interested local residents as non-experts, residents who can communicate information, including uncertainties, but also to communicate information among experts, government bodies, and designated members the news media. It is also suggested that a cooperative system of geoparks that feature disasters and benefits would help the volcanic disaster prevention council.
-  Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, 2012 Scienc technology white book.
-  Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, 2004 Scienc technology white book.
-  T. Kobayashi, “Who dose think about Sience and Tachnology: Experiment of concensus meeting,” University of Nagoya Press, 2004.
-  T. Kobayashi, “Era of trans-science: – connecting science and technology and society,” NTT Press, 2007.
-  RISTEX project of “Legal decisions with scientific uncertainly,” “Hanbook for science and low,” 2012.
-  Japan Meteorological Agency, “About Special Alert,” on WEB, http://www.mlit.go.jp/saigai/newstage.html [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, “The way of disaster prevention and mitigation to correspond to a new stage,” http://www.mlit.go.jp/saigai/newstage.html [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  H. Okada and T. Ui, “Eruption prediction and disaster prevention and mitigation,” “Volcanic eruption and disaster,” Tokyo university Press, pp. 79-116, 1997.
-  H. Yamasato, “Volcano Monitoring and Information for the Society,” Bulleten of the Volcanological Society of Japan, Vol.48, pp. 115-119, 2003.
-  Japan Meteorological Agency, “History of the Coordinating Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruptions,” on WEB, http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vois/data/tokyo/STOCK/kaisetsu/CCPVE/CCPVE06.html [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  Y. Nakamura, T. Tanada, D. Aramaki, and Y. Hotta, “Volcanic hazard map collection in Japana 2nd edition,” Documents of National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, No.380, pp. 1-186, 2013.
-  H. Yamasato, J. Funasaki, and Y. Takagi, “The volcano disaster prevention work of JMA,” Technical Note of the National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, No.380, pp. 9-15, 2013.
-  Y. IImura, S. Miyazaki, and M. Sasaki, “Establishement of new dense GSI’s Nationwide GPS Arey,” J. of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan , No.87, pp. 37-49, 1997.
-  H. Yamasato, S. Oga, Y. Dsaiku, J. Funasaki, M. Matsushima, H. Naito, and T. Kanno, “Announcement of Volcanic Activity Level by Japan Meteorological Agency,” Bulletin of the Volcanological Society of Japan, Vol.49, pp. 217-222, 2004.
-  Japan Meteorological Agency, “Description of the eruption worning level,” on WEB, http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vois/data/tokyo/STOCK/kaisetsu/level_toha/level_toha.html [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  M. Koyama, “Public Communication and Education of Knowledge and Information about Volcanoes and Their Risk in Japan : Present Status,” Bulleten of the Volcanological Society of Japan, pp. S289-S317, 2005.
-  Japan Meteorological Agency, “Activities of each volcano,” on WEB, http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vois/data/tokyo/volcano.html [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), “Japanesed volcanoed 3rd edition,” 2013.
-  M. Koyama, “Why do not have enough help Seismology and volcanology in disaster prevention and mitigation,” Science, Iwanami press, Vol.69, pp. 256-264, 1999.
-  O. Hiroi, H. Nakamori, N. Kawabata, and Y. Goto, “Prediction and coverage of the volcano eruption: The case study of eruptions 1986 Izu-Oshima eruption in 1986 and the Unzen in 1991,” Institute of Socio-Information and Communication Studies, the University of Tokyo, pp. 153, 1992.
-  Central Disaster Management Council- Committee for Policy, “Expert Committee report on the inheritance of the disaster lessons: Activity reports of the erption of Mt. Unzen-Fugendake in 1990-1995,” 2007.
-  H. Ikeya, “The Heisei Eruption of Mt. Unzen-Fugendake and Measures Against Volcanic Disasters,” J. of Disaster Research, Vol.3. No.4, pp. 276-283, 2008.
-  T. Nishimura, S. Fujiwara, M. Murakami, M. Tobita, H. Nakagawa, T. Sagiya, and T. Tada, “The M6.1 Earthquake triggered by volcanic inflation of Iwate volcano, northern Japan, observed by satellite radar interferometry,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.28, pp. 635-638, 2001.
-  T. Saito, “Disaster prevention and mitigation in local area: The role of local governments – the case of Iwate eruption crisis,” Imagin Press, p. 104, 2005.
-  T. Fujii, “Current Status and Issues of volcanic eruption prediction plan,” Abstructs of 9th Symposium in The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) on Dec. 12 in 2007: Prediction for volcanic activity by geological methods – Aiming to reduce of volcanic disaster –, 2007, https://www.gsj.jp/data/openfile/no0470/0470-4.pdf [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  A. Tomiya, “Magm ejected by the Mt. Usu eruption in 2000,” AIST WEB site, https://staff.aist.go.jp/a.tomiya/usu/magma2000.html [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  M. Koyama, “The issues for Volcanic activity evaluation and information transmission about the eruption of Mt. Miyakejima of August 2000,” Report of Coordinating Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruption , No.78, pp. 125-133, 2002.
-  Y. Hayakawa, “Miyakejima 2000 eruption crisis in a view of TV news – the opnions of volcanological experts and government officials, journalists and the voice of residents,” Bulletin of Gunma University Faculty of Education the Edition of Natural Sciences, Vol.52, pp. 73-101, 2004.
-  Economical newspaper for NuclearEnergy, No.2055, Sep. 21, 2000.
-  M. Yoshimoto, T.Shimano, H. Tsuji, A. Iida, M. Kurokawa, Y. Okayama, M. Nonaka, T. Kaneko, H. Hoshizumi, Y. Ishizuka, R. Furukawa, K. Nogami, S. Onizawa, K. Nihori, T. Sugimoto, and M. Nagai, “Mass Estimation and Characteristics of Ejecta from the 2004 Eruption of Asama Volcano,” Bulletin of the Volcanological Society of Japan, Vol.50, pp. 519-533, 2005.
-  H. Tanaka, H. Taira, T. Uchida, M. Tanaka, M. Takeo, T. Ohminato, Y. Aoki, R. Nishitama, D. Shoji, and H. Tsuiji, “Three dimensional computational axial tomography scan of a volcano with cosmic ray muon radiography,” J. Geophys. Res., Vol.115, B12332, doi:10.1029/2010JB007677, 2010.
-  Volcanological Division, Seismological and Volcanological Department, Fukuoka District Meteorological Observatory, Kagoshima Local Meteorological Observatory, and Miyazaki Local Meteorological Observatory, “Problems and Management in the Eruption at Shinmoedake, Kirishimayama in 2011,” Quarterly J. of Seismology, Vol.3, No.77, pp. 237-240, 2013.
-  Mainichi Shinbun Newspaper, “Evacuation advisory; Judgment break,” Feb. 5, 2011.
-  Asahi Shinbun Newspaper, “Coexist with the volcano; What we can do it. – Tourism Kirishima is prospective-,” Feb. 7, 2011.
-  Outreach division of Eatquake Research Institute of Tokyo Universitu, “The eruption on Sep. 27, 2014,” ERI WEB site. http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/?page_id=183&id=4816 [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  Study Group on strengthening of volcano observation system in Coordinating Committee for Eruption Prediction, “Report on the strengthening of the observation system of active volcanoes with the disaster by the eruption of Mt. Ontake in 2014,” JMA WEB site, 2015.
-  Asahi Shinbun Newspaper, “The possibility of small eruption on Mt. Zao,” Apr. 14, 2015.
-  Kahku Shinpo Newspaper, “Researchers have mentioned the relationship between the eruption and earthquake,” Apr. 14, 2015.
-  Hot Springs Research Institute of Kanagawa Prefecture, “The progress of the eruption of Mt. Hakone in 2015,” WEB site of Hot Springs Research Institute of Kanagawa Prefecture, http://www.onken.odawara.kanagawa.jp/modules/mysection1/item.php?itemid=52 [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  Jiji Press, “Small eruption on thenmorning of Jul. 1: Volcanic ash on Owakudani valley of Mt. Hakone –,” Jul. 1, 2015.
-  Asahi Sinbun Newspaper, “Confirmation of volcanic ash on Mt. Hakone: It is eruption but The expresion of eruption is not adequate,” Jul. 21, 2015.
-  M. Iguchi, “ The crisis of Mt. Sakurajima: Eruption warning of level 4,” WEB site of Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University. http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/news/5588/ [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  Portal site for Sakurajima tourist “Sakurajima for All,” http://www.sakurajima.gr.jp/ [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  Tthe Science and Technology Policy Bureau, the Research Promotion Bureau, and the Research and Development Bureau, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), “The section 10: Integrated prpject for Human resource development in the volcanic field,” A report of a public budget request for 2016 Fy from MEXT, August 28, 2015, http://www.mext.go.jp/component/b_menu/other/_icsFiles/afieldfile/2015/08/27/1361292_1.pdf [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  Japan Meteorological Agency, “The section 1: The enhansement of of observation and monitoring systems for volcanic eruptions and large-scale earthquake and tsunami,” A report of a public budget request for 2016 Fy from JMA, August 28, 2015, http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/1508/27a/28yosan.pdf [accessed April 10, 2016]
-  M. Kuri, Y. Murakami, and K. Tachibana, “Science cafe as planning to convey scientific uncertainty,” News letters of Seismological Society of Japan, Vol.23, No.4, pp. 30-32, 2011.
-  Y. Jibiki, S. Kure, M. Kuri, and Y. Ono, “Analysis of early warning systems: The case of super-typhoon Haiyan,” International J. of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol.15, pp. 24–28, 2016.
-  T. Fujii and K. Ishihara, “Volcanic Disasters,” J. of Disaster Research, Vol.3. No.4, p. 258, 2008.
-  S. Sugimoto, “Volcanic disaster and local region,” J. of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science, Vol.30, No.1, pp. 18-28, 2011.
-  M. Kuri, I. Miyahara, M. Watanabe, S. Sato, and K. Nakagawa, “Report of Geopark on Stricken Areas: Disasters and Gifts of Geo,” J. of Disaster Research, Vol.11. No.3, pp. 425-436, 2016.
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.