JDR Vol.11 No.1 pp. 60-71
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2016.p0060


Modeling of Information Flow for Early Warning in Mount Merapi Area, Indonesia

Leslie Jamie Cobar*, Djoko Legono**, and Kuniaki Miyamoto*

*Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba
Tennoudai 1-1-1, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan

**Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Jalan Grafika No. 2, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia

November 16, 2015
January 13, 2016
February 1, 2016
information, network, early warning, eruption, lahar, Merapi
Indonesia’s Mount Merapi is one of the world’s most active, dangerous volcanoes. Its 2010 eruption – the largest following the 20th century – and succeeding 2011 lahar events killed 389 persons and injured and displaced many more. One way to mitigate a disaster’s impact is the provision of reliable information to the public through a well-established early warning system (EWS). A well-managed information flow network is the key to delivering early warning information, however, there is a lack of understanding on the information transfer down to the citizens. In addition, implementing the 2007 disaster management law may have affected Merapi’s EWS. This study reinvestigates Merapi’s EWS information flow through the construction of an information flow network. A single information flow network was difficult to construct due to the inconsistency of structures per district. Different networks had to be constructed for volcanic eruptions and lahars in each district. Inconsistencies were also found in the roles of the agencies that determine when evacuation orders would be issued. The system also had data transfer gaps and vulnerabilities such as redundancies, mistransfers and bottlenecks. Its use of forecasting information as a basis for decision-making must be reviewed for lahar information flow networks. Improving Merapi’s EWS must involve handling these issues.
Cite this article as:
L. Cobar, D. Legono, and K. Miyamoto, “Modeling of Information Flow for Early Warning in Mount Merapi Area, Indonesia,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.11 No.1, pp. 60-71, 2016.
Data files:
  1. [1] Geological Agency of Indonesia, G. Merapi Jawa Tengah, 2014,
  2. [2] B. Voight, E. K. Constantine, S. Siswowidjoyo, and R. Torley, “Historical eruptions of Merapi volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, 1768–1998,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.100, pp. 69-138, 2000.
  3. [3] F. Lavigne, J. C. Thouret, B. Voight, H. Suwa, and A. Sumaryono, “Lahars at Merapi volcano, Central Java: an overview,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.100, pp. 423-456, 2000.
  4. [4] E. de Bélizal, F. Lavigne, D. S. Hadmoko, J-P. Degeai, G. A. Dipayana, B. W. Mutaqin, M. A. Marfai, M. Coquet, B. Le Mauff, A-K. Robin, C. Vidal, N. Cholik, and N. Aisyah, “Rain-triggered lahars following the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia: A major risk,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.261, pp. 330-347, 2013.
  5. [5] Global Volcanism Program, Merapi eruptive history, 2013 http://linebreak, [accessed Oct. 9, 2015].
  6. [6] J. C. Thouret, F. Lavigne, K. Kelfoun, and S. Bronto, “Toward a revised hazard assessment at Merapi volcano, Central Java,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.100, pp. 479-502, 2000.
  7. [7] C. S. Witham, “Volcanic disasters and incidents: a new database,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.148, pp. 191-233, 2005.
  8. [8] F. Lavigne, E. de Bélizal, N. Cholik, N. Aisyah, A. Picquout, and E. T. Wulan Mei, “Lahar hazards and risks following the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia,” Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.13, EGU2011-4400, 2011, EGU General Assembly, 2011.
  9. [9] Center for Volcanology and hazard Mitigation, “Jejak Instituti Pemantauan Gunungapi Indonesia,” bpptk.php?page=bpptkg&subpage=organisasi, [accessed Oct. 9, 2015].
  10. [10] S. Hardjosuwarno, C. BambangSukatja, and F. Tata Yunita, “Early Warning System for Lahar in Merapi: Current and Future Development,” United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, pp. 1-22, 2013.
  11. [11] A. P. Rahardjo, “Review of Present Monitoring, Forecasting, and Warning System for the Urgent Disaster Reduction Project for Mt. Merapi Progo River Basin,” pp. 1-140, 2007.
  12. [12] E. T. W. Mei, F. Lavigne, A. Picquout, E. de Belizal, D. Brunstein, D. Grancher, J. Sartohadi, N. Cholik, and C. Vidal, “Lessons learned from the 2010 evacuations at Merapi volcano,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol.261, pp. 348-365, 2013.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on May. 19, 2024