Climate Change Impact on the Manageability of Floods and Droughts of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins Using Flood Duration Curves and Drought Duration Curves
Muhammad Masood*,** and Kuniyoshi Takeuchi**
*National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato, Tokyo 106-8677, Japan
**International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), PWRI
1-6, Minamihara, Tsukuba 305-8516, Japan
This study investigates the impact of climate change on the manageability of floods and droughts in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins using Flood Duration Curves (FDCs) and Drought Duration Curves (DDCs). Duration curves are drawn for monthly basin-averaged precipitation over each of the three basins and daily streamflow at their outlets for three periods: the observed (1980–2009), the near-future (2015–2039) and the far-future (2075–2099). Degree of difficulty of managing hydrological extremes is measured in terms of difficulty of smoothing hydrological variations which can be identified from the duration curves. Among three basins the manageability of the Meghna basin is expected to be more difficult due to increases of seasonal and annual variations of streamflow in the future. Significantly distinct persistence characteristics have been identified, which can be utilized for flood control, reservoir design and operation. The information contained in these curves has direct implications on policy making for future water resources development and water resources management both in flood and drought.
-  M. Masood and K. Takeuchi, “Assessment of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk of mid-eastern Dhaka using DEM and 1D hydrodynamic model,” Natural Hazards, Vol.61, pp. 757–770, 2001.
-  I. M. Faisal, M. R. Kabir, and A. Nishat, “Non-structural flood mitigation measures for Dhaka City,” Urban Water, Vol.1, pp. 145–153, 1999.
-  A. Nishat and I. M. Faisal, “An assessment of the Institutional Mechanism for Water Negotiations in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna system,” Int. Negotiations, Vol.5, pp. 289–310, 2000.
-  M. S. Babel and S. M. Wahid, “Hydrology, management and rising water vulnerability in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River basin,” Water Int., Vol.36, pp. 340–356, 2011.
-  C. B. Moffitt, F. Hossain, R. F. Adler, K. K. Yilmaz, and H. F. Pierce, “Validation of a TRMM-based global Flood Detection System in Bangladesh,” Int. Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Vol.13, pp. 165–177, 2011.
-  BWDB, “Rivers of Bangladesh,” Bangladesh Water Development Board, Dhaka, 2012.
-  CDKN, “The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report: What’s in it for South Asia?,” Overseas Development Institute and Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2014.
-  R. M. Vogel and N. M. Fennessey, “Flow Duration Curves II: A Review of Applications In Water Resources Planning,” Water Resources Bulletin, Vol.31, pp. 1029–1039, 1995.
-  G. Blöoschl, M. Sivapalan, A. T. Wagener, and V. Savenije, “Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Synthesis across Processes, Places and Scales,” Cambridge University Press, 2013.
-  H. Kikkawa and K. Takeuchi, “Use of statistical knowledge of drought for alleviating drought problems,” Proc. Second World Congr. IWRA, Vol.4, pp. 197–203, 1975.
-  H. Kikkawa and K. Takeuchi, “Characteristics of drought duration curve and its application,” Proc JSCE, Vol.234, pp. 62–71, 1975.
-  K. Takeuchi, “Chance-Constrained Model for Real-Time Reservoir Operation Using Drought Duration Curve,” Water Resources Research, Vol.22, pp. 551–558, 1986.
-  K. Takeuchi, “Hydrological Persistence Characteristics of floods and droughts-international comparisons,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol.102, pp. 49–67, 1988.
-  T. Kyoshi, A. Shimoda, and K. Watanabe, “A Study of Dam Control with DDC Rule Curve,” JHHE, Vol.37, pp. 87–92, 1993.
-  S. Matsuda, “Study on Rainfall During Periods of Deficient Precipitation in Kochi Prefecture,” Trans. of The Japanese Society of Irrigation, Drainage and Reclamation Engineering, pp. 29–35, a21, 1979.
-  G. P. Weedon, S. Gomes, P. Viterbo, J. Shuttleworth, and E. Blyth, et al., “Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century,” J. Hydrometeorol, Vol.12, pp. 823–848, 2011.
-  P. Lucas-Picher, J. H. Christensen, F. Saeed, P. Kumar, and S. Asharaf, et al., “Can Regional Climate Models Represent the Indian Monsoon?,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol.12, pp. 849–868, 2011.
-  C. Siderius, H. Biemans, A. Wiltshire, S. Rao, an W. H. Franssen, et al., “Snowmelt contributions to discharge of the Ganges,” The Science of the total environment, Vol.468–469 Suppl, pp. S93–S101, 2013.
-  A. Yatagai, K. Kamiguchi, O. Arakawa, A. Hamada, and N. Yasutomi, et al., “APHRODITE: Constructing a Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Rain Gauges,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.93, pp. 1401–1415, 2012.
-  M. Masood, P. J. F. Yeh, N. Hanasaki, and K. Takeuchi, “Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin,” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol.19, pp. 747–770, 2015.
-  N. Hanasaki, S. Kanae, T. Oki, K. Masuda, and K. Motoya, et al., “An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing,” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., pp. 1007–1025, 2008.
-  R. Mizuta, H. Yoshimura, H. Murakami, M. Matsueda, and H. Endo, et al., “Climate Simulations Using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km Grid,” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol.90A, pp. 233–258, 2012.
-  IWM, “Updating and Validation of North West Region Model (NWRM),” Institute of Water Modelling, Bangladesh, 2006.
-  M. Masood, P. J. F. Yeh, N. Hanasaki, and K. Takeuchi, “Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin,” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., Vol.11, pp. 5747–5791, 2014.
-  J. Caesar, T. Janes, A. Lindsay, and B. Bhaskaran, “Temperature and precipitation projections over Bangladesh and the upstream Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna systems,” Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts, 2015.