The Rise and Fall of the Kobe Economy from the 1995 Earthquake

Yasuhide Okuyama

doi:10.20965/jdr.2015.p0635

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JDR Vol.10 No.4 pp. 635-640

(2015)

doi: 10.20965/jdr.2015.p0635

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The Rise and Fall of the Kobe Economy from the 1995 Earthquake

Yasuhide Okuyama

Graduate School of Social System Studies, The University of Kitakyushu
Kitagata, Kokuraminami-ku, Kitakyushu 802-8577, Japan

Received:

March 31, 2015

Accepted:

July 15, 2015

Published:

August 1, 2015

Keywords:

disaster impact, structural change, reconstruction plan, the Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake Disaster

Abstract

Twenty years ago, a catastrophic earthquake hit the second largest economy in Japan, causing damages to a considerable number of houses, buildings, lifelines, and infrastructure. The total damage was estimated to be around 2% of the Japanese GDP at that time. Reconstruction plans were set and had progressed since then. The progress of recovery and reconstruction has been studied from various angles. With regard to economic recovery, a series of studies pointed out that after a short period of reconstruction-boom, the Hyogo Prefecture and the City of Kobe have been showing a declining trend. Under the 10-year reconstruction plans, the damaged region went through a recovery and rebuilding process; nevertheless, these plans could not bring back the damaged economy to the pre-event growth trend. The reconstruction plans were intended not to restore the pre-event conditions but to maintain the long-range development plans initiated before the event. Further, this decision might have contributed to the downturns in economic recovery in the middle-run; however, it is expected that it would lead the economy toward sustained growth in the long-run.

Cite this article as:

Y. Okuyama, “The Rise and Fall of the Kobe Economy from the 1995 Earthquake,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.10 No.4, pp. 635-640, 2015.

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References

[1] Hyogo Prefecture, “Situation of Recovery and Reconstruction from the Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake Disaster,” Kobe, Japan, 2015 (in Japanese).
[2] R. Hornbeck, “The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short and Long Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe,” NBER Working Paper Series: W15605, 2009.
[3] R. A. Baade, R. Baumann, and V. Matheson, “Estimating the Economic Impact of Natural and Social Disasters, with an Application to Hurricane Katrina,” Urban Studies, Vol.44, No.11, pp. 2061-2076, 2007.
[4] M. Coffman and I. Noy, “Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control,” Environment and Development Economics, Vol.17, pp. 187-205, 2011.
[5] G. Horwich, “Economic lessons of the Kobe earthquake,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol.48, pp. 521-542, 2000.
[6] S. E. Chang, “Urban disaster recovery: a measurement framework and its application to the 1995 Kobe earthquake,” Disasters, Vol.34, No.2, pp. 303-327, 2010.
[7] W. DuPont and I. Noy, “What happened to Kobe? A reassessment of the impact of the 1995 earthquake,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2015 (forthcoming).
[8] Y. Okuyama, “Long-run effect of a disaster: Case study on the Kobe earthquake,” Singapore Economic Review, 2015 (forthcoming).
[9] Y. Okuyama, “Disaster and economic structural change: Case study on the 1995 Kobe earthquake,” Economic Systems Research, Vol.26, No.1, pp. 98-117, 2014.
[10] D. W. Edgington, “Reconstructing Kobe: the Geography o Crisis and Opportunity,” UBC Press: Vancouver, Canada, 2010.
[11] Hyogo Prefecture, “Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Reconstruction Plan,” Kobe; Japan, 1995 (in Japanese).
[12] Hyogo Prefecture, “Hyogo 2001 Plan,” Kobe; Japan, 1986 (in Japanese).
[13] City of Kobe, “City of Kobe Reconstruction Plan,” Kobe; Japan, 1995 (in Japanese).
[14] City of Kobe, “New City of Kobe Master Plan,” Kobe; Japan, 1993 (in Japanese).
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[18] Hyogo Prefecture, “Survey Report of Reconstruction Outcomes with Indexes,” Kobe; Japan, 2004 (in Japanese).
[19] City of Kobe, “Review Report of Disaster Reconstruction Process (Heisei 11 Nendo),” Kobe; Japan, 1999 (in Japanese).
[20] City of Kobe, “Review Report of Disaster Reconstruction Process (Heisei 15 Nendo),” Kobe; Japan, 2003 (in Japanese).
[21] Jijitsushin, “Special Issue on Five Years after the Earthquake,” Tokyo; Japan, 2006 (in Japanese).
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[24] Y. Murosaki, “Lessons on Reconstruction Strategies from the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.2, No.5, pp. 330-334, 2007.

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.

[1] [1] Hyogo Prefecture, “Situation of Recovery and Reconstruction from the Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake Disaster,” Kobe, Japan, 2015 (in Japanese).

[2] [2] R. Hornbeck, “The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short and Long Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe,” NBER Working Paper Series: W15605, 2009.

[3] [3] R. A. Baade, R. Baumann, and V. Matheson, “Estimating the Economic Impact of Natural and Social Disasters, with an Application to Hurricane Katrina,” Urban Studies, Vol.44, No.11, pp. 2061-2076, 2007.

[4] [4] M. Coffman and I. Noy, “Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control,” Environment and Development Economics, Vol.17, pp. 187-205, 2011.

[5] [5] G. Horwich, “Economic lessons of the Kobe earthquake,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol.48, pp. 521-542, 2000.

[6] [6] S. E. Chang, “Urban disaster recovery: a measurement framework and its application to the 1995 Kobe earthquake,” Disasters, Vol.34, No.2, pp. 303-327, 2010.

[7] [7] W. DuPont and I. Noy, “What happened to Kobe? A reassessment of the impact of the 1995 earthquake,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2015 (forthcoming).

[8] [8] Y. Okuyama, “Long-run effect of a disaster: Case study on the Kobe earthquake,” Singapore Economic Review, 2015 (forthcoming).

[9] [9] Y. Okuyama, “Disaster and economic structural change: Case study on the 1995 Kobe earthquake,” Economic Systems Research, Vol.26, No.1, pp. 98-117, 2014.

[10] [10] D. W. Edgington, “Reconstructing Kobe: the Geography o Crisis and Opportunity,” UBC Press: Vancouver, Canada, 2010.

[11] [11] Hyogo Prefecture, “Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Reconstruction Plan,” Kobe; Japan, 1995 (in Japanese).

[12] [12] Hyogo Prefecture, “Hyogo 2001 Plan,” Kobe; Japan, 1986 (in Japanese).

[13] [13] City of Kobe, “City of Kobe Reconstruction Plan,” Kobe; Japan, 1995 (in Japanese).

[14] [14] City of Kobe, “New City of Kobe Master Plan,” Kobe; Japan, 1993 (in Japanese).

[15] [15] Hyogo Prefecture, “Reconstruction Program for the Second Half,” Kobe; Japan, 2000 (in Japanese).

[16] [16] Hyogo Prefecture, “Reconstruction Program for the Final Three Years,” Kobe; Japan, 2002 (in Japanese).

[17] [17] Hyogo Prefecture, “Summary and Evaluation Report of 10-year Reconstruction,” Kobe; Japan, 2005 (in Japanese).

[18] [18] Hyogo Prefecture, “Survey Report of Reconstruction Outcomes with Indexes,” Kobe; Japan, 2004 (in Japanese).

[19] [19] City of Kobe, “Review Report of Disaster Reconstruction Process (Heisei 11 Nendo),” Kobe; Japan, 1999 (in Japanese).

[20] [20] City of Kobe, “Review Report of Disaster Reconstruction Process (Heisei 15 Nendo),” Kobe; Japan, 2003 (in Japanese).

[21] [21] Jijitsushin, “Special Issue on Five Years after the Earthquake,” Tokyo; Japan, 2006 (in Japanese).

[22] [22] City of Kobe, “Progress and Process of Reconstruction in 20 Years,” Kobe; Japan, 2015 (in Japanese).

[23] [23] City of Kobe, “Overview and Reconstruction of the Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake Disaster,” Kobe; Japan, 2011 (in Japanese).

[24] [24] Y. Murosaki, “Lessons on Reconstruction Strategies from the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.2, No.5, pp. 330-334, 2007.