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JDR Vol.10 No.3 pp. 448-456
(2015)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2015.p0448

Paper:

Bias Correction in Typhoon and Storm Surge Projection Considering Characteristics of Global Climate Model MRI-AGCM3.2S

Noriaki Hashimoto*, Yukihiro Kinashi**, Tomoko Kawashima**, Masaki Yokota*, Masaru Yamashiro*, and Mitsuyoshi Kodama*

*Coastal and Ocean Engineering Laboratory, Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University
744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan

**River and Water Resources Division, Kyushu Office, CTI Engineering Co., Ltd.
CTI Fukuoka Building, 2-4-12 Daimyo, Chuo-ku, Fukuoka 810-0075, Japan

Received:
December 16, 2014
Accepted:
April 20, 2015
Published:
June 1, 2015
Keywords:
climate change, storm surge, MRI-AGCM3.2S, best track data, Ariake Sea
Abstract

The typhoons that so often rage across Japan’s southwestern island, Kyushu, are expected to occur even oftener in the future due to global warming. Storm surge projections have been reported based on the super-high-resolution global climate model MRI-AGCM3.2S developed by Japan’s Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). AGCM3.2S overestimates typhoon strength around Japanese islands, however, and this could lead to exaggerated storm surge projection. We therefore evaluate a bias correction method of typhoon strength considering the typhoon characteristics of AGCM3.2 in estimating maximum storm surge anomaly on the Ariake Sea coast. Our results indicated the possibility of storm surge anomaly of 2.8 m, exceeding the current design storm surge anomaly of 2.36 m at the innermost Ariake Sea.

Cite this article as:
N. Hashimoto, Y. Kinashi, T. Kawashima, M. Yokota, M. Yamashiro, and M. Kodama, “Bias Correction in Typhoon and Storm Surge Projection Considering Characteristics of Global Climate Model MRI-AGCM3.2S,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.10, No.3, pp. 448-456, 2015.
Data files:
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