Modification and Validation of an Assessment Model of Post-Earthquake Lifeline Serviceability Based on the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster
Nobuoto Nojima and Hiroki Kato
Department of Civil Engineering, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu 501-1193, Japan
The assessmentmodel for post-earthquake lifeline serviceability of electric power, water, and city gas supply systems has been modified and applied to the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster with the detailed and updated data required for damage assessment. The estimated and observed population affected after the main shock and its decreasing process has been compared for validation on a prefectural basis. Reasonable agreement has been found between the estimation and observation except for discrepancies attributed to unconsidered factors, such as damage to hierarchically high facilities caused by tsunami, liquefaction, and/or ground shaking.
-  N. Nojima and M. Sugito, “Probabilistic assessment model for postearthquake serviceability of utility lifelines and its practical application,” Safety and Reliability of Engineering Systems and Structures (Proc. of the 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR 2005), Eds. Augusti, G. et al.), Rome, Italy, Millpress, pp. 279-287, 2005.
-  N. Nojima, “Assessment model for effects of disruption of utility lifelines due to earthquake in consideration of countermeasures by suppliers and users,” Journal of Social Safety Science, Vol.15, pp. 153-162, November 2011 (in Japanese).
-  N. Nojima and H. Kato, “Validation of an assessment model of postearthquake lifeline serviceability – Based on the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster –,” Journal of Social Safety Science, Vol.18, pp. 229-239, November 2012 (in Japanese).
-  N. Nojima, M. Sugito, and M. Kuse, “Macroscopic assessment of seismic disaster potential in terms of population exposure to seismic intensity,” Proc. of the Third Taiwan-Japan Workshop on Lifeline Performance and Disaster Mitigation, Taipei, Taiwan, pp. 251-258, May 2004.
-  N. Nojima, “Seismic vulnerability index for lifeline facilities,” Proc. of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, Paper No.06-0130, October 2008.
-  S. Takada, M. Fujiwara, M. Miyajima, Y. Suzuki, M. Yoda, and T. Tojima, “A study on prediction method for pipeline damage basedon the characteristics of crustal earthquakes,” Journal of Japan Water Works Association, Vol.70, No.3 (798), pp. 21-37, 2001 (in Japanese).
-  N. Nojima and H. Kato, “Seismic vulnerability assessment of water distribution pipelines based on statistics on water supply in Japan,” Proc. of the 33th JSCE Earthquake Engineering Symposium, Japan Society of Civil Engineers Paper No. 4-410, November 2013 (in Japanese).
-  Japan Water Works Association, “Annual statistics on water works (facilities and operation), FY2010,” Vol.93, No.1, 2010 (in Japanese).
-  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, National and Regional Policy Bureau, National Land Numerical Information Division, “National land numerical information download service, water facilities, publication of land price, densely inhabited district” (in Japanese),
http://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/index.html [accessed August 30, 2013]
-  Japan Small Scale Water Works Association, “Annual statistics on small scale water works, FY2010,” 2012 (in Japanese).
-  Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, “Material No.33, disaster countermeasures” (in Japanese),
http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/sankoushin/hoan/gas anzen/pdf/001 04 02 03.pdf [accessed August 31, 2013]
-  Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Agency for Natural Resorces and Energy, “Annual report on gas utility industry, FY 2010,” 2012 (in Japanese).
-  The Japan Gas Association, “Gas vision 2030” (in Japanese),
http://www.gas.or.jp/gasvision2030.pdf [accessed August 31, 2013]
-  Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, “Report on disaster countermeasures of city gas supply based on the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster,” March 2012.
-  H. Tong and F. Yamazaki, “Relationship between ground motion indices and new JMA seismic intensity,” Seisan-Kenkyu, Report of the Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Vol.48, No.11, pp. 547-550, November 1996 (in Japanese).
-  W. Inomata and S. Yamamoto, “Business continuity planning and earthquake disaster countermeasures in city gas supply systems,” Proc. of the Symposium on Disaster Mitigation of Lifelines considering System Interactions, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Earthquake Engineering Committee, Subcommittee on Disaster Mitigation of Lifelines considering System Interactions, pp. 54-59, December 2009 (in Japanese).
-  National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), QuiQuake (Quick estimation system for earthquake maps triggered by observation records), 2009 (in Japanese),
http://qq.ghz.geogrid.org/QuickMap/index.en.html [accessed August 23, 2011]
-  Tohoku Electric Power Company, “Restoration records on the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster,” September 2012 (in Japanese).
-  Tohoku Electric Power Company, “Emergency information: Perspective of restoration from The 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake,” March 11-April 25, 2011 (in Japanese),
http://www.tohoku-epco.co.jp/emergency/9/index.html [accessed 27 May, 2011]
-  Tokyo Electric Power Company, “Press release: Impacts of restoration from The 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake,” March 11-April 25, 2011 (in Japanese),
http://www.tepco.co.jp/index-j.html [accessed May 27, 2011]
-  Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, “Damage and response to The 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake,” March 13 (No.11)-April 25 (No.59), 2011 (in Japanese),
http://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/houdou/ [accessed May 27, 2011]
-  Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Health Service Bureau, Water Supply Division, “Final report on damage to water supply facilities in the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster,” March 2013.
-  The Japan Gas Association, “Suspension of city gas supply due to The 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake,” March 11 (No.2)-April 25 (No.51), 2011 (in Japanese),
http://www.gas.or.jp/default.html [accessed May 18, 2011]
-  Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau, “2010 census, basic statistics of population, Table 1,” 2010 (in Japanese),
http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kokusei/2010/index.htm [accessed September 20, 2012]
-  The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, “The 60 years statistics on electric power supply, III Sales, Chapter 5 The number of contracts and consumed electric power by prefecture,” 2013 (in Japanese),
https://www.fepc.or.jp/library/data/60tokei/index.html [accessed September 1, 2013]
-  K. T. Shabestari and F. Yamazaki, “A proposal of new seismic intensity scale compatible withMMI evaluated from seismic records,” Proc. of the 11th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, pp. 121-127, 1998.