Disaster Prevention in Industrial Society – Principal Features of Disaster
Mamoru Ozawa* and Yoji Shibutani**
*Faculty of Safety Science, Kansai University, 7-1 Hakubai-cho, Takatsuki, Osaka 569-1098, Japan
**Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamada-oka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
Disasters have several principal features, appeared when neglected detailed and unique behaviors, consistent throughout events, which we discuss based on practical disaster data. The principal features we focused on are dynamics of technologies and society, spatiotemporal evolution and diversity in scenarios leading to disasters, and probability distribution based on disaster scale. Among these features, the probability distribution is normalized to fall into a specified curve consistent with theWeibull distribution and Heinrich’s law. Numerical simulation via cellular automata (CA) simulation with a metaphor model gives Heinrich’s law under the specified constraint, suggesting that the Weibull distribution or Heinrich’s law gives a representative statistical characteristics universal throughout disasters.
-  “News Investigators Team on Toyota Recall Problems Ed.,” Chain-Reaction of Deficiency, in Japanese, Nikkei BP, pp. 53-74, 2010.
-  K. Hirakawa, “The Truth in German Railway Accident at Eschede,” In Japanese, Keibun-sha, 2006.
-  E. Preuss, “Eisenbahnunfaelle Bei Der Deutschen Bahn,” Transpress Verlag, Stuttgart, 2008.
-  M. Matsumoto, “The Science-Technology-Society Interface: A Sociological Theory,” Bokutakusha Pub., 1998.
-  S. Ishigai, “General Principles of Technological Science,” Corona Pub., 1972.
-  M. Ozawa, “Steam Power Engineering,” S. Ishigai ed., Chapter 5, Cambridge University Press, New York, pp. 204-322, 1999.
-  H. W. Dickinson, “A short History of the Steam Engine,” Cambridge University Press, pp. 29-53, 1934.
-  C. Riley and P. Dolling, “Apollo 11,” Haynes Pub., Somerset, 2009.
-  I. Jordaan, “Decisions Under Uncertainty,” Cambridge University Press, New York, 2005.
-  J. G. Collier and G. F. Hewitt, “Introduction to Nuclear Power,” Hemisphere, Washington DC, 1987.
-  J. S. Walker, “A Nuclear Crisis in Historical Perspective – Three Mile Island,” University of California Press, Berkeley, 2004.
-  K. Yamaguchi, “History of Hot-Water Heater,” Homepage of Japan Association of Kitchen & Bath,
-  The Third Person Committee of Paloma Industries, Ltd., “Proposal for Prevention of Accident Recurrence and Management Reform,” 2006.
-  Research Group for Highly-Pathogenic Avian Flu Infection Course, “On the Infection Course of for Highly-Pathogenic Avian Flu,” 2004.
-  U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Home Page: West Nile Virus Map,
-  H. Okada and M. Tashiro, “Preventing Infection – Influenza and SARS,” Iwanami, 2003.
-  U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants,” WASH-1400, NUREG-75/014, 1975.
-  R. P. Feynman, “Appendix F – Personal Observation on the Reliability of the Shuttle,” In Report of the Presidential Commission on the Shuttle Challenger, NASA, 1986.
-  R. P. Feynman, “The Pressure of Finding Things Out – The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman,” Perseus Books, 1999.
-  H. Endo, “Challenge to Safety Flight,” Elekitel, 72, pp. 20-23, 1999.
-  D. Gero, “Aviation Disasters: The World’s Major Civil Airliner Crashes since 1950,” History Press, 2009.
-  The Japan Coast Guard, Marine Safety Statistics,
-  H. W. Heinrich, “Industrial Accident Prevention,” McGraw-Hill, pp. 26-35, 1941.
-  M. Utsunomiya, “Safety of Public Transportation System,” Presented in the Kansai University Extension Lecture Series: Takatsuki-City and the Safety, Nov. 2010.
-  H. Yada, T. Kawaguchi, and T. Tanaka, “Relation between Segregation Patterns and Granular Flow Modes in Conical Rotating Drum,” Flow Measurement and Instrumentation, Vol.21, pp. 207-211, 2010.
-  R. J. Gaylord, and K. Nishidate, “Modeling Nature: Cellular Automata Simulation with Mathematica,” Springer, New York, 1996.
-  M. Thatcher, “Lecture in Hello Academy,”
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.