Disaster Prevention in Industrial Society – Principal Features of Disaster

Mamoru Ozawa; Yoji Shibutani

doi:10.20965/jdr.2011.p0193

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JDR Vol.6 No.2 pp. 193-203

(2011)

doi: 10.20965/jdr.2011.p0193

Paper:

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Disaster Prevention in Industrial Society – Principal Features of Disaster

Mamoru Ozawa^* and Yoji Shibutani^**

^*Faculty of Safety Science, Kansai University, 7-1 Hakubai-cho, Takatsuki, Osaka 569-1098, Japan

^**Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamada-oka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan

Received:

November 10, 2010

Accepted:

December 16, 2010

Published:

April 1, 2011

Keywords:

disaster prevention, spatiotemporal evolution, CA simulation, heinrich’s law, weibull distribution

Abstract

Disasters have several principal features, appeared when neglected detailed and unique behaviors, consistent throughout events, which we discuss based on practical disaster data. The principal features we focused on are dynamics of technologies and society, spatiotemporal evolution and diversity in scenarios leading to disasters, and probability distribution based on disaster scale. Among these features, the probability distribution is normalized to fall into a specified curve consistent with theWeibull distribution and Heinrich’s law. Numerical simulation via cellular automata (CA) simulation with a metaphor model gives Heinrich’s law under the specified constraint, suggesting that the Weibull distribution or Heinrich’s law gives a representative statistical characteristics universal throughout disasters.

Cite this article as:

Mamoru Ozawa and Yoji Shibutani, “Disaster Prevention in Industrial Society – Principal Features of Disaster,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.6, No.2, pp. 193-203, 2011.

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[3] [3] E. Preuss, “Eisenbahnunfaelle Bei Der Deutschen Bahn,” Transpress Verlag, Stuttgart, 2008.

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[6] [6] M. Ozawa, “Steam Power Engineering,” S. Ishigai ed., Chapter 5, Cambridge University Press, New York, pp. 204-322, 1999.

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[11] [11] J. S. Walker, “A Nuclear Crisis in Historical Perspective – Three Mile Island,” University of California Press, Berkeley, 2004.

[12] [12] K. Yamaguchi, “History of Hot-Water Heater,” Homepage of Japan Association of Kitchen & Bath,
http://www.kitchen-bath.jp/public/40nenshi/2.4kyuutouki.pdf .

[13] [13] The Third Person Committee of Paloma Industries, Ltd., “Proposal for Prevention of Accident Recurrence and Management Reform,” 2006.

[14] [14] Research Group for Highly-Pathogenic Avian Flu Infection Course, “On the Infection Course of for Highly-Pathogenic Avian Flu,” 2004.

[15] [15] U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Home Page: West Nile Virus Map,
http://westnilemaps.usgs.gov/index.html.

[16] [16] H. Okada and M. Tashiro, “Preventing Infection – Influenza and SARS,” Iwanami, 2003.

[17] [17] U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants,” WASH-1400, NUREG-75/014, 1975.

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[21] [21] D. Gero, “Aviation Disasters: The World’s Major Civil Airliner Crashes since 1950,” History Press, 2009.

[22] [22] The Japan Coast Guard, Marine Safety Statistics,
http://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/info/tokei/ .

[23] [23] H. W. Heinrich, “Industrial Accident Prevention,” McGraw-Hill, pp. 26-35, 1941.

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[25] [25] H. Yada, T. Kawaguchi, and T. Tanaka, “Relation between Segregation Patterns and Granular Flow Modes in Conical Rotating Drum,” Flow Measurement and Instrumentation, Vol.21, pp. 207-211, 2010.

[26] [26] R. J. Gaylord, and K. Nishidate, “Modeling Nature: Cellular Automata Simulation with Mathematica,” Springer, New York, 1996.

[27] [27] M. Thatcher, “Lecture in Hello Academy,”
http://www.hello.ac/hello/thatcherpdf/thatcher98.pdf ,
1998.

Disaster Prevention in Industrial Society – Principal Features of Disaster

Mamoru Ozawa* and Yoji Shibutani**

Mamoru Ozawa^* and Yoji Shibutani^**