Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Tone River Basin, Japan, Using Super-High-Resolution Atmospheric Model Output
Kaoru Takara*, Sunmin Kim*, Yasuto Tachikawa**,
and Eiichi Nakakita*
*Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University
Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
**Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering Laboratory, Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, C1, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
We examined the potential impact of climate change on Tokyo metropolitan water resources in the Tone River basin using output from a super-high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model, AGCM20, having 20-km spatial resolution and 1-hour temporal resolution. AGCM20 is run on the Earth Simulator and being developed under the Japanese government’s Kakushin21 program. AGCM20 has an advantage in simulating orographic rainfall and frontal rain bands, so we used its output to analyze Tone River basin water resources. The basin covers 16,840 km2 and the main channel is 322 km long from its source to the Pacific Ocean. AGCM20 outputs hourly precipitation and daily variables such as snowfall, rainfall, snowmelt, evaporation, and transpiration for a present period, 1979-1998, and a projected period, 2075-2094. A comparison of these two periods showed that snow-related variables will decrease and all others will increase. Based on a comparison of ordered daily precipitation curves (ODPC) between AGCM20 and the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS), a high-resolution Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observation network, we corrected AGCM20 precipitation data bias, and calculated the standardized precipitation index (SPI) drought indicator. The SPI for less than 6 months does not show noticeable variations under climate change, but the yearly SPI predicts more frequent dry conditions, indicating increased future vulnerability to subtle droughts.
and Eiichi Nakakita, “Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Tone River Basin, Japan, Using Super-High-Resolution Atmospheric Model Output,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.4, No.1, pp. 12-23, 2009.
-  The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis,” Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007.
-  The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), “Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,” Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007.
-  N. Gedney, P. M. Cox, R. A. Betts, O. Boucher, C. Huntingford, and P. A. Stott, “Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records,” Nature, 439, pp. 835-838, 2006.
-  P. C. D. Milly, K. A. Dunne, and A. V. Vecchia, “Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate,” Nature, 438, pp. 347-350, 2005.
-  S. Piao, P. Friedlingstein, P. Ciais, N. de Noblet-Ducoudre, D. Labat, and S. Zaehle, “Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol.104, No.39, pp. 15242-15247, 2006.
-  R. A. Betts, O. Boucher, M. Collins, P.M. Cox, P.D. Falloon, N. Gedney, D. L. Hemming, C. Huntingford, C. D. Jones, D. M. H. Sexton, and M. J. Webb, “Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide,” Nature, Vol.448, pp. 1037-1041, 2007.
-  T. Oki and S. Kanae, “Global hydrological cycles and world water resources,” Science, Vol.313, pp. 1068-1072, 2006.
-  K. M. Andreadis and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.33, L10403, 2006.
-  T. P. Barnett, J. C. Adam, and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions,” Nature, Vol.438, pp. 303-309, 2005.
-  P. W. Mote, A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Declining mountail snow pack in western North America,” Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, Vol.86, pp. 39-49, 2005.
-  D. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, M. K. Meyer, and A. E. Jeton, “Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099,” Climate Change, Vol.62, pp. 283-317, 2004.
-  C. J. Vorosmarty, P. Green, J. Salisbury, and R. B. Lammers, “Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth,” Science, Vol.289, pp. 284-288, 2000.
-  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan, “Water Resources in Japan,” 2007.
-  R. Ibbitt, K. Takara, M. N. M. Desa, and H. Pawitan (Eds.), “Catalogue of Rivers for Southeast Asia and the Pacific — Volume IV,” The UNESCO-IHP Regional Steering Committee for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, UNESCO-IHP Publication, pp. 95-109, 2002.
-  IPCC, “Climate Change: The IPCC Scientifi c Assessment,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1990.
-  A. Kitoh and S. Kusunoki, “East Asian summer monsoon simulation by a 20-km mesh AGCM,” Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0285-2, 2007.
-  R. Mizuta, K. Oouchi, H. Yoshimura, A. Noda, K. Katayama, S. Yukimoto, M. Hosaka, S. Kusunoki, H. Kawai, and M. Nakagawa, “20-km-mesh global climate simulations using JMA-GSM model —Mean climate states—,” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol.84, pp. 165-185, 2006.
-  N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, “Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.108, No.D14, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
-  N. Nakicenovic, J. Alcamo, G. Davis, B. de Vries, J. Fenhann, S. Gaffin, K. Gregory, and A. Grübler, et al., “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios,” Working Group III, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000.
-  Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) of Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),
-  S. Kusunoki and R. Mizuta, “Future Changes in the Baiu Rain Band Projected by a 20-km Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Sea Surface Temperature Dependance,” Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA), The Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol.4, pp. 85-88, 2008.
-  Report on RCM20, JMA,
-  Y. Hujihara, M. Ode, T. Kojiri, K. Tomosugi, and H. Irie, “Effects of global warming on the water resources of the Tone River basin,” Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, Vol.50, pp. 367-372, 2006.
-  K. Wada, M. Murase, and Y. Tomizawa, “Study on the flood and drought risk assessment of global warming by regional climate model,” Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, Vol.49, pp. 493-498, 2005.
-  F. H. S. Chiew, T. I. Harrold, L. Siriwardena, R. N. Jones, and R. Srikanthan, “Simulation of climate change impact on runoff using rainfall scenarios that consider daily patterns of change from GCMs,” In Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2003), Townsville, 14-17 July 2003.
-  T. I. Harrold and R. N. Jones, “Generation of local-scale rainfall scenarios using changes in GCM rainfall: a refinement of the perturbation method,” In Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2003), Townsville, 14-17 July 2003.
-  A. S. Kiem, H. Ishidaira, H. P. Hapuarachchi, M. C. Zhou, Y. Hirabayashi, and K. Takeuchi, “Future hydroclimatology of the Mekong River basin simulated using the high-resolution Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AGCM,” Hydrological Processes, Vol.22, pp. 1382-1394, 2008.
-  W. C. Palmer, “Meteorological drought. Research Paper No.45,” U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C, 1965.
-  W. C. Palmer, “Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new Crop Moisture Index,” Weatherwise 21, pp. 156-161, 1968.
-  B. A. Shafer and L. E. Dezman, “Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas,” In Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, pp. 164-175. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 1982.
-  T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales,” 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 179-184, Anaheim, California, January 17-22, 1993.
-  D. C. Edwards and T. B. McKee, “Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales,” Climatology Report Number 97-2, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 1997.
-  H. A. Panofsky and G. W. Brier, “Some application of Statistics to Meteorology,” Pensilvania State University Press, p. 200, 1958.
-  R. A. Seiler, M. Hayes, and L. Bressan, “Using the standardized precipitation index for flood risk monitoring,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol.22, pp. 1365-1376, 2002.
-  S. K. Min, W. T. Kwon, E. H. Park, and Y. G. Choi, “Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol.23, pp. 223-233, 2003.
-  S. Morid, V. Smakhtin, and M. Moghaddasi, “Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol.26, pp. 971-985, 2006.
-  National Climate Data Center (NCDC).
-  M. J. Hayes, M. D. Svoboda, D. A. Wilhite, and O. V. Vanyarkho. “Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.80, pp. 429-438, 1999.
-  N. B. Guttman, “On the sensitivity of sample L moments to sample size,” Journal of Climate, Vol.7, pp. 1026-1029, 1994.
-  H. Wu, M. J. Hayes, D. A. Wilhite, and M. D. Svoboda, “The effect of the length of record on the standardized precipitation index calculation,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol.25, pp. 505-520, 2005.