JACIII Vol.28 No.3 pp. 704-713
doi: 10.20965/jaciii.2024.p0704

Research Paper:

Labor Force Participation Rate Prediction of China: Scenario Simulation Based on Education and Retirement Strategies

Xiang Li*,† ORCID Icon, Shuyu Li**, and Chengkun Liu***

*School of Economics and Finance, Huaqiao University
No.269 Chenghua North Road, Fengze District, Quanzhou, Fujian 362021, China

Corresponding author

**Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester
Office 3.128, Alliance Manchester Business School, Booth Street West, Manchester M 6, United Kingdom

***School of Statistics and Data Science, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics
No.169 Shuanggang East Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013, China

January 2, 2024
February 20, 2024
May 20, 2024
labor participation rate, education reform strategy, delayed retirement strategy, scenario prediction

This study uses detailed population statistics and analyzes labor participation rates in China from the perspectives of education and retirement. It presents different hypothetical scenarios and predicts future labor participation rates using queue factors. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, the overall labor participation rate (51.43%) is projected to significantly decrease by 2060 compared to 2020 (73.76%). The lock-in effect of education leads to a declining participation rate for the 15–24 age group, which persists until approximately the age of 50. Generally, women have higher labor participation rates than men prior to retirement. In the education-centered hypothetical scenario, the quantity impact of educational expansion is evident. Although the relative impact of additional education diminishes toward the end of working life (60–74) compared to the entire working life (15–74). The improvement in the labor market due to educational reform is sustainable across all scenarios. In the retirement-centered hypothetical scenario, reducing retirement rates across age groups increases labor force participation, but this improvement mainly focuses on those under the age of 70 and is not sustained. Thus, delaying retirement policies is only effective in the short term.

Trends in the labor participation rates

Trends in the labor participation rates

Cite this article as:
X. Li, S. Li, and C. Liu, “Labor Force Participation Rate Prediction of China: Scenario Simulation Based on Education and Retirement Strategies,” J. Adv. Comput. Intell. Intell. Inform., Vol.28 No.3, pp. 704-713, 2024.
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Last updated on Jun. 03, 2024