The Macroeconomic Effect of Disaster Shocks in MRS-DSGE Models
Shangfeng Zhang*, Siwa Xu*, Xiaohui Luo*, Yue Sun*, Yinan Yang**,, and Bing Xu*
*College of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University
18 Xuezheng Street, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310018, China
**School of Public Administration, South China University of Technology
381 Wu Shan Road, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510641, China
In this paper, a Markov transfer matrix is used to characterize exogenous sudden shocks, and a closed economic DSGE model including a financial accelerator is constructed to simulate the impact of sudden shocks on China’s macroeconomic performance. The study found that: (1) Sudden impacts reduce output, investment, consumption, capital, technology, and enterprise value, but improve labor, inflation, and risk premium, thus weakening macroeconomic risk resilience. (2) The impact of sudden shocks on macroeconomic variables, from large to small, is net worth, technical level, labor, inflation, investment, capital, output, and external premium. (3) It is appropriate for the government to adopt the principle of combining broad finance measures and tight currency controls in order to improve the risk resistance ability of macroeconomic operations.
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