Review:
Integrated Research on Large-Scale Eruption at Sakurajima Volcano
Masato Iguchi*,**,

*Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University
1722-19 Sakurajima-Yokoyama, Kagoshima, Kagoshima 891-1419, Japan
**Kagoshima City Hall
Kagoshima, Japan
Corresponding author
The 1914 eruption with VEI 4 Plinian pumice falls and the lava flow at Sakurajima Volcano is the largest-scale eruption in Japan after the 20th century. From the uplift of the ground of Aira Caldera where the main magma reservoir of Sakurajima is located and long-term recurrence interval of VEI 4 eruption, a large-scale eruption is expected to occur on the volcano in the near future. For such a large-scale eruption, it is important to (1) understand the precursory activity, (2) forecast eruption, (3) evaluate hazards, and (4) improve disaster prevention literacy. Respectively, (1) the intrusion of magma induces elastic deformation and fracture of rock (volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake). This may be followed by an opening tensile crack. Evolution of magma intrusion may appear as a conjugate crack. (2) Magma intrusion rate is a key factor to forecast scale and type of eruption. Magma intrusion rate increased up to >108 m3/day before the Plinian eruption. Very high seismicity of low-frequency earthquake follows VT earthquake swarm. (3) Simulation tools have been developed for various kinds of volcanic hazards. A key parameter is allocation of intrusive magma to tephra, pyroclastic flow, and lava flows. (4) Evacuation from volcanoes is an essential countermeasure against volcanic disaster risk. A large eruption, especially pumice fall, requires a wide alert zone. Since awareness of evacuation from the massive tephra fall is low in areas far from the volcano, workshops for residents were repeated to enhance awareness of evacuation from the massive tephra.
- [1] C. G. Newhall and S. Self, “The volcanic explosivity index (VEI): An estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism,” J. Geophys. Res.: Oceans, Vol.87, No.C2, pp. 1231-1238, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231
- [2] T. Kobayashi et al., “Geological map of Sakurajima Volcano (2nd Ed.),” Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, 2013 (in Japanese).
- [3] K. Ishihara, T. Takayama, Y. Tanaka, and J. Hirabayashi, “Lava flows at Sakurajima Volcano (1)—Volume of the historical lava flows—,” Disaster Prev. Res. Inst. Ann. Kyoto Univ., Vol.24 B-1, pp. 1-10, 1981 (in Japanese with English abstract).
- [4] K. Abe, “Seismometrical re-evaluation of the Sakurajima earthquake of January 12, 1914,” Geophys. Bull. Hokkaido Univ., Vol.39, pp. 57-62, 1981 (in Japanese with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14943/gbhu.39.57
- [5] F. Omori, “The Sakura-jima eruptions and earthquakes V,” Bull. Imp. Earthq. Investig. Comm., Vol.8, No.5, pp. 353-466, 1920.
- [6] K. Hotta, M. Iguchi, T. Ohkura, and K. Yamamoto, “Multiple-pressure-source model for ground inflation during the period of high explosivity at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan – Combination analysis of continuous GNSS, tilt and strain data –,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vol.310, pp. 12-25, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.11.017
- [7] K. Mogi, “Relations between the eruptions of various volcanoes and the deformations of the ground surface around them,” Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, Vol.36, pp. 99-134, 1958.
- [8] K. Yoshikawa, “On the crustal movement accompanying with the recent activity of the Volcano Sakurajima (Part 1),” Bull. Disaster Prev. Res. Inst. Kyoto Univ., No.48, pp. 1-15, 1961.
- [9] T. Eto and S. Nakamura, “Ground deformation around Sakurajima Volcano –1974∼1982–,” Report on 5th Joint Observation of Sakurajima Volcano, pp. 11-21, 1986 (in Japanese).
- [10] K. Sassa, “A few problems on prediction of earthquake (II),” Proc. 5th Anniv. Found. Disast. Prev. Res. Inst. Kyoto Univ., pp. 3-7, 1956 (in Japanese).
- [11] K. Kamo and K. Ishihara, “Volcanic activity of Sakurajima as seen from ground deformation,” Research Report of the Sakurajima Area Academic Research Council, pp. 19-28, 1980 (in Japanese).
- [12] Surono et al., “The 2010 explosive eruption of Java’s Merapi Volcano—A ‘100-year’ event,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vols.241-242, pp. 121-135, 2012. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0377027312001862
- [13] N. Aisyah et al., “Combination of a pressure source and block movement for ground deformation analysis at Merapi Volcano prior to the eruptions in 2006 and 2010,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vol.357, pp. 239-253, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.05.001
- [14] R. Oyanagi, “Research of mass increase process in Sakurajima Volcano from 1975 to 1992 utilizing repeated relative gravity measurement data,” Master’s thesis, Kyoto University, 2021 (in Japanese).
- [15] Fukuoka Regional Headquarters and Kagoshima Meteorological Office (in Japanese). https://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vois/data/tokyo/STOCK/monthly_v-act_doc/fukuoka/24m06/506_24m06.pdf [Accessed August 3, 2024]
- [16] R. E. A. Robertson, J. Barclay, E. P. Joseph, and R. S. J. Sparks, “An overview of the eruption of La Soufrière Volcano, St Vincent 2020–21,” Geol. Soc. Lond. Spec. Publ., Vol.539, pp. 1-24, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP539-2023-95
- [17] F. Omori, “The Sakura-Jima eruptions and earthquakes, II,” Bull. Imp. Earthq. Inv. Comm., Vol.8, No.6, p. 179, 1916.
- [18] M. Hashimoto and T. Tada, “A model for crustal deformations associated with the 1914 great eruption of Sakurajima Volcano, Kagoshima, Japan,” Tectonophysics, Vol.205, No.4, pp. 427-436, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(92)90446-D
- [19] K. Hotta, M. Iguchi, and T. Tameguri, “Rapid dike intrusion into Sakurajima Volcano on August 15, 2015, as detected by multi-parameter ground deformation observations,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.68, Article No.68, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0450-0
- [20] M. Koike and H. Nakamichi, “Dike inflation process beneath Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, during the earthquake swarm of August 15, 2015,” Front. Earth Sci., Vol.8, Article No.600223, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.600223
- [21] H. Takayama and A. Yoshida, “Crustal deformation in Kyushu derived from GEONET data,” J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth, Vol.112, No.B6, Article No.B06413, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JB004690
- [22] M. Iguchi, T. Tameguri, J. Hirabayashi, and H. Nakamichi, “Forecasting volcanic eruption of Sakurajima Volcano based on magma intrusion rate,” Bull. Volcanol. Soc. Jpn., Vol.64, No.2, pp. 33-51, 2019 (in Japanese). https://doi.org/10.18940/kazan.64.2_33
- [23] K. Ishii and M. Iguchi, “Statistical features of the ground deformation database for Vulcanian explosions at Sakurajima Volcano,” Abstract of AOGS Annual Meeting 2023, 2023.
- [24] S. R. McNutt, “Seismic monitoring and eruption forecasting of volcanoes: A review of the state-of-the-art and case histories,” R. Scarpa and R. I. Tilling (Eds.), “Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards,” pp. 99-146, Springer, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-80087-0_3
- [25] Y. Hayashi, “Magnitude estimation of the earthquakes preceding the 1914 Taisho eruption of Sakurajima Volcano,” Hist. Earthq., Vol.19, pp. 101-107, 2003 (in Japanese).
- [26] S. Hidayati et al., “Differences in the seismicity preceding the 2007 and 2014 eruptions of Kelud Volcano, Indonesia,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vol.382, pp. 50-67, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.10.017
- [27] T. Kobori, M. Maki, Y. Fujiyoshi, M. Iguchi, and S. Fukushima, “Estimating volcanic eruption column height and growth rate using X-band marine radar at the Sakurajima Volcano,” SOLA, Vol.18, pp. 231-235, 2022. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2022-037
- [28] K. Takishita, A. P. Poulidis, and M. Iguchi, “In-situ measurement of tephra deposit load based on a disdrometer network at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vol.421, Article No.107442, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107442
- [29] M. Iguchi, “Method for real-time evaluation of discharge rate of volcanic ash—Case study on intermittent eruptions at the Sakurajima Volcano, Japan—,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.11, No.1, pp. 4-14, 2016. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2016.p0004
- [30] W. C. Skamarock et al., “A description of the advanced research WRF model version 4,” NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-556+STR, 2019. https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97
- [31] A. Folch et al., “FALL3D-8.0: A computational model for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles, aerosols and radionuclides – Part 1: Model physics and numerics,” Geosci. Model Dev., Vol.13, No.3, pp. 1431-1458, 2020. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020
- [32] M. Iguchi, H. Nakamichi, K. Takishita, and A. P. Poulidis, “Continuously operable simulator and forecasting the deposition of volcanic ash from prolonged eruptions at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.17, No.5, pp. 805-817, 2022. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2022.p0805
- [33] K. Ishii and M. Iguchi, “Statistical analysis of the ground deformation of Vulcanian explosions at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vol.455, Article No.108185, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108185
- [34] H. Rahadianto, H. Tatano, and M. Iguchi, “Uncertainty analysis of the prediction of massive ash fallout from a large explosive eruption at Sakurajima Volcano,” Earth Space Sci., Vol.11, No.1, Article No.e2023EA003174, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003174
- [35] S. Yamashita and K. Miyamoto, “Model of pyroclastic flow and its numerical simulation,” Sediment Problems: Strategies for Monitoring, Prediction, and Control (Proc. of the Yokohama Symp.), pp. 67-74, 1993.
- [36] M. Iguchi, T. Tameguri, Y. Ohta, S. Ueki, and S. Nakao, “Characteristics of volcanic activity at Sakurajima Volcano’s Showa Crater during the period 2006 to 2011,” Bull. Volcanol. Soc. Jpn., Vol.58, No.1, pp. 115-135, 2013. https://doi.org/10.18940/kazan.58.1_115
- [37] R. White and W. McCausland, “Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vol.309, pp. 139-155, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.10.020
- [38] M. Iguchi et al., “Forecast of the pyroclastic volume by precursory seismicity of Merapi Volcano,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.14, No.1, pp. 51-60, 2019. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0051
- [39] N. Geshi and J. Itoh, “Pyroclastic density currents associated with the 2015 phreatomagmatic eruption of the Kuchinoerabujima Volcano,” Earth Planets Space, Vol.70, Article No.119, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-018-0881-x
- [40] F. Maeno et al., “A sequence of a Plinian eruption preceded by dome destruction at Kelud Volcano, Indonesia, on February 13, 2014, revealed from tephra fallout and pyroclastic density current deposits,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vol.382, pp. 24-41, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.03.002
- [41] M. Iguchi and T. Yamada, “Volcanic disaster during the eruptive period since 1955 at Sakurajima Volcano,” Disaster Prev. Res. Inst. Ann. Kyoto Univ., No.64 B, pp. 57-72, 2021 (in Japanese).
- [42] Kagoshima Meteorological Office (in Japanese). https://www.jma-net.go.jp/kagoshima/vol/kazan_top.html [Accessed August 3, 2024]
- [43] T. Tameguri and M. Iguchi, “Characteristics of micro-earthquake swarms preceding eruptions at Showa Crater of Sakurajima Volcano, Japan,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., Vol.372, pp. 24-33, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.01.016
- [44] M. Iguchi, T. Yamada, and T. Tameguri, “Sequence of volcanic activity of Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, as revealed by non-eruptive deflation,” Front. Earth Sci., Vol.10, Article No.727909, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.727909
- [45] E. Shimokawa and T. Jitousono, “An effect of tephra cover on sediment disasters on and around Sakurajima Volcano,” West. Reg. Div. Rep. Jpn. Group Study Nat. Disaster, Vol.12, pp. 73-80, 1991 (in Japanese).
- [46] M. Iguchi, “Proposal of estimation method for debris flow potential considering eruptive activity,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.14, No.1, pp. 126-134, 2019. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0126
- [47] M. Maki, I. Suzuki, M. Iguchi, and Shakti P. C., “Quantitative volcanic ash fall estimation by weather radar: Z–RA relationship for the Sakurajima eruption of August 18, 2013,” Bull. Volcanol. Soc. Jpn., Vol.64, No.4, pp. 219-241, 2019 (in Japanese). https://doi.org/10.18940/kazan.64.4_219
- [48] T. Ersöz, K. Haneda, A. Kuribayashi, and Y. Gonda, “Temporal changes in lahar sediment run-off characteristics and run-off coefficients in the Arimura River basin of Sakurajima Volcano, Japan,” Earth Surf. Process. Landf., Vol.48, No.14, pp. 2682-2703, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5654
- [49] T. Ersöz and Y. Gonda, “Investigation of different lahar types with rainfall intensity duration curves in Arimura river basin of Sakurajima Volcano,” Int. J. Eros. Control Eng., Vol.17, No.1, pp. 1-14, 2024. https://doi.org/10.13101/ijece.17.1
- [50] H. Yamasato, J. Funasaki, and Y. Takagi, “The Japan Meteorological Agency’s volcanic disaster mitigation initiatives,” Tech. Note Natl. Res. Inst. Earth Sci. Disaster Prev., No.380, pp. 9-15, 2013 (in Japanese).
- [51] H. Nakamichi and M. Sakamoto, “Questionnaire survey on the volcano information to the residents in response to falling ballistic volcanic blocks found on June 8, 2020 in Sakurajima Volcano,” Disaster Prev. Res. Inst. Ann. Kyoto Univ., No.66 B, pp. 111-120, 2023 (in Japanese).
- [52] M. Kanai, “Report on the eruption of Sakurajima volcano in the year 1914, and on the investigation and experiments concerning the eruptive materials and crop cultivation,” Kagoshima Higher Agricultural and Forestry School, 1920 (in Japanese).
- [53] M. Onishi et al., “Risk communication with a long-term perspective: Collaborative activities with local communities to prepare for a large-scale Sakurajima eruption,” DPRI Annual Meeting 2023, A312, 2023.
- [54] M. Takebayashi, M. Onishi, and M. Iguchi, “Large volcanic eruptions and their influence on air transport: The case of Japan,” J. Air Transp. Manag., Vol.97, Article No.102136, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102136
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.