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JDR Vol.17 No.2 pp. 246-256
(2022)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0246

Note:

Prioritization of Different Kinds of Natural Disasters and Low-Probability, High-Consequence Events

Moe Fujita and Yosuke Yamashiki

Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University
1 Nakaadachi-cho, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Kyoto 606-8306, Japan

Corresponding author

Received:
January 31, 2020
Accepted:
December 28, 2021
Published:
February 1, 2022
Keywords:
LPHC, HPLC, emergency risks, prioritization, insurance
Abstract

In the history of terrestrial lifeforms, several different kinds of natural disasters can be classified in biological history since the Phanerozoic period. The most serious disasters can be classified as (1) volcanic disasters, (2) asteroid impacts, and (3) climate disasters, in reference to the root cause of low-probability, high-consequence (LPHC) events. However, on a shorter timescale, mankind is more vulnerable to frequent disasters, such as (i) large floods, (ii) epidemics, (iii) earthquakes, (iv) tsunamis, and (v) small-medium scale volcanic eruptions. These are known as high-probability, low-medium-consequence events (HPLC). LPHC occurrences have a very low probability of occurring, but they would have catastrophic consequences. HPLCs occur more frequently, with most of them having decadal frequency. They cause local fatalities, but they are never global in scale. In this study, these events are classified and evaluated based on the potential risk for human civilization. We also discuss how to incorporate different considerations related to prioritizing different disasters, focusing on whether insurance mechanisms can be applied or not.

Cite this article as:
Moe Fujita and Yosuke Yamashiki, “Prioritization of Different Kinds of Natural Disasters and Low-Probability, High-Consequence Events,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.17, No.2, pp. 246-256, 2022.
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