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JDR Vol.5 No.6 pp. 666-676
(2010)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2010.p0666

Paper:

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Adapting the Demographic Transition in Preparation for the Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake

Haili Chen, Norio Maki, and Haruo Hayashi

Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan

Received:
August 13, 2010
Accepted:
September 19, 2010
Published:
December 1, 2010
Creative Commons License
Keywords:
adaptation, resilience, demographic transition, the Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake
Abstract
Demographic transition has been widely discussed but rarely examined in the disaster research context. With the anticipated Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake becoming an issue, we are developing adaptation strategies targeting enhancing resilience against and reducing vulnerability to this potential threat. Using mesh-based population estimation in cohort component analysis, we are characterizing the current and 2030 populations into sustainable, dependent, and marginal demographic transition patterns to discuss the impact of demographic transition. Specific to each area of certain demographic transition and seismicity exposure, and wide-area management, we suggest 4 adaptation strategies - business continuity planning, regional vitalization, community-capability reinforcement, and wide-area management - for improving current management.
Cite this article as:
H. Chen, N. Maki, and H. Hayashi, “Adapting the Demographic Transition in Preparation for the Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.5 No.6, pp. 666-676, 2010.
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