single-dr.php

JDR Vol.5 No.6 pp. 666-676
(2010)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2010.p0666

Paper:

Adapting the Demographic Transition in Preparation for the Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake

Haili Chen, Norio Maki, and Haruo Hayashi

Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan

Received:
August 13, 2010
Accepted:
September 19, 2010
Published:
December 1, 2010
Keywords:
adaptation, resilience, demographic transition, the Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake
Abstract

Demographic transition has been widely discussed but rarely examined in the disaster research context. With the anticipated Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake becoming an issue, we are developing adaptation strategies targeting enhancing resilience against and reducing vulnerability to this potential threat. Using mesh-based population estimation in cohort component analysis, we are characterizing the current and 2030 populations into sustainable, dependent, and marginal demographic transition patterns to discuss the impact of demographic transition. Specific to each area of certain demographic transition and seismicity exposure, and wide-area management, we suggest 4 adaptation strategies – business continuity planning, regional vitalization, community-capability reinforcement, and wide-area management – for improving current management.

Cite this article as:
Haili Chen, Norio Maki, and Haruo Hayashi, “Adapting the Demographic Transition in Preparation for the Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.5, No.6, pp. 666-676, 2010.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] Central Disaster Prevention Council (2003, Mar), “Abstract of Disaster Management against the Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake,” retrieved Nov, 2008, Cabinet Office Homepage, Tonankai Nankai Earthquake Experts Investigation Committee, Japanese,
    http://www. bousai.go.jp/jishin/chubou/taisaku_nankai/pdf/gaiyou/gaiyou.pdf
  2. [2] Hyogo Prefecture, “3-years promotion project of vitalizing the prefectural administration based on the contribution of the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake recovery: the promotion of mutual society based the learnt experience and lesson of earthquake,” Hyogo Prefecture, 2007.
  3. [3] E. Ishikawa, et al., “Study on reconstruction of damaged villages from viewpoint of rebuilding of houses and recovery of livelihood of each sufferer –In case of reconstructed villages from the Mid Niigata Earthquake–,” Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, No.43-3, pp. 727-732, 2008.
  4. [4] H. Ikariyama, “Agenda of political economy presented by the Noto Hanto Earthquake in 2007 case,” Earth Science, Vol.61, pp. 309-313, 2007.
  5. [5] Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2009, Jul), “National Seismicity Estimation Map,” retrieved Jul, 2009, Official Homepage, Japanese,
    http://www.jishin. go.jp/main/yosokuchizu/index.html
  6. [6] W. Shimoda, H. Kawakata, and H. Hayashi, “Identification of Spacio/Temporal Patterns of Earthquake Occurrence Based on a Historical Earthquake Disaster Archive,” J. Institute of Social Safety Science, No.5, pp. 105-112, 2003.
  7. [7] Central Disaster Prevention Council (2003, Sep), “The damage scenario of Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake,” retrieved Nov, 2008, Cabinet Office Homepage, Tonankai Nankai Earthquake Experts Investigation Committee (in Japanese),
    http://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/chubou/nankai /14/siry ou21.pdf
  8. [8] H. P. Kohler, F. C. Billari, and J. A. Ortega, “The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s,” Population and Development Review, Vol.28, No.4, pp. 641-680, 2002.
  9. [9] Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), “World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision,” United Nations Population Division, 2006.
  10. [10] M. Yamaguchi, H. Nishioka, and S. Koike, “Fertility in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Japan from 1980-2000,” J. of Population Problems, Vol.61, No.1, pp. 1-17, 2005.
  11. [11] A. Ishikawa, “The factor analysis in regional population aging,” J. of Population Problems, Vol.58, No.4, pp. 47-64, 2002.
  12. [12] National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2007, May), “Population projections for prefectures of Japan,” Retrieved October 25, 2008, IPSS Homepage (in Japanese),
    http://www. ipss.go.jp/
  13. [13] National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2002, May), “Population projections for prefectures of Japan,” Retrieved October 25, 2008, IPSS Homepage (in Japanese),
    http://www. ipss.go.jp/
  14. [14] H. Chen, N. Maki, and H. Hayashi, “Examining the Regional Exposure Characteristics under Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquake Under the Consideration of Future Population Decline –A Preliminary Study in Future Population Exposure and Infrastructure Exposure–,” Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science, J. JSNDS, Vol.29, No.3, 2010 (Forthcoming).
  15. [15] H. Chen, N. Maki, and H. Hayashi, “Evaluating the Impact of Demographic Transition in the Context of the Tokai-Tonankai-Nanka Earthquake, Japan,” Journal of Natural Disaster Science, Vol.31, No.2, pp. 19-30, 2009.
  16. [16] H. Maki, L. Chen, and S. Suzuki, “Response to Possible Earthquake Disasters in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai Areas, and Their Restoration/Reconstruction Strategies,” Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.4, No.2, pp. 142-150, 2009.
  17. [17] Cabinet Office (2009, Jun), “White Paper on Disaster Management 2009,” Retrieved Jul 1, 2009, Cabinet Office Homepage (in Japanese),
    http://www.bousai.go.jp/ha kusho/hakusho.html
  18. [18] I. Nakabayashi, “The idea and view of the pre-disaster recovery planning,” City Planning Review, No.205, pp. 23-26, 2005.
  19. [19] T. Ichiko, “New possibility of community-based disaster prevention based on the pre-disaster recovery planning,” The Operations Research Society of Japan, pp. 640-625, 2006.
  20. [20] H. Hayashi, “The Resilience that Protects Human’s Work,” In Kyoto University & NTT Research group (Ed.), Disaster Resilient Society, Tokyo: Nikkei Business Publications Inc., 2009.
  21. [21] W. N. Adger, “Vulnerability,” Global Environmental Change, Vol.16, pp. 268-281, 2006.
  22. [22] B. Smit and O. Pilifosova, “Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity,” In: J. J. McCarthy, O. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, K. S. White (Eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, IPCC Working Group II, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 877-912, 2001.
  23. [23] K. Terumoto, et al., “On the Severity of Problems and Necessity of Measures during the Interval between the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai Earthquakes – A Case Study in Tanabe City,” Journal of Social Safety Science, Vol.10, pp. 416-426, 2008.
  24. [24] R. Bajek, Y. Matsuda, and N. Okada, “Japan’s Jishu-bosai- soshiki community activities: analysis of its role in participatory community disaster risk management,” Natural Hazards, No.44, pp. 281-292, 2008.
  25. [25] K. Ota, et al., “An Examination of a Method for Evaluating Disaster Mitigation Ability with Attention to Isolation and Selfsupport of Villages in Intermediate and Mountainous Areas, Kii Peninsula,” Composite Journal, Architectural Institute of Japan, Vol.6, pp. 49-56, 2008.
  26. [26] S. Suzuki, and H. Hayashi, “A Study on the Disaster Exposures to Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake and the Areal Characterization Based on Them,” Journal of Institute of Social Safety Science, No.10, pp. 97-104, 2008.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Sep. 24, 2021