Paper:
Forecasting Realized Volatility in Financial Markets Based on a Time-Varying Non-Parametric Model
Wentao Gu*,†, Zhongdi Liu*, Cui Dong*, Jian He*, and Ming-Chuan Hsieh**
*School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University
18 Xuezheng Street, Xiasha Education Park, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310018, China
†Corresponding author
**Research Center for Testing and Assessment, National Academy for Educational Research
No.2 Sanshu Road, Sanxia District, New Taipei City 23703, Taiwan
This paper proposes a new non-parametric adaptive combination model for the prediction of realized volatility on the basis of applying and extending the time-varying probability density function theory. We initially construct an adaptive time-varying weight mechanism for a combination forecast. To compare the predictive power of the models, we take the SPA test, which uses bootstrap as the evaluation criterion and employs the rolling window strategy for out-of-sample forecasting. The empirical study shows that the non-parametric TVF model forecasts more accurately than the HAR-RV model. In addition, the average combination forecast model does not have a significant advantage over any single model while our adaptive combination model does.
The predictive performance of the arithmetic average and adaptive combination forecast models
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