JDR Vol.17 No.4 pp. 516-525
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0516


Effects of Urban Development on Regional Climate Change and Flood Inundation in Jakarta, Indonesia

Bambang Adhi Priyambodoho*1, Shuichi Kure*1,†, Nurul Fajar Januriyadi*2, Mohammad Farid*3, Alvin Christopher Galang Varquez*4, Manabu Kanda*4, and So Kazama*5

*1Toyama Prefectural University
5180 Kurokawa, Imizu, Toyama 939-0398, Japan

Corresponding author

*2Universitas Pertamina, Jakarta, Indonesia

*3Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia

*4Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan

*5Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan

September 7, 2021
February 24, 2022
June 1, 2022
flood inundation model, Indonesia, Jakarta, climate change, urban development

Flood risks associated with changes in land use and climate are a common concern, especially in relation to their potential effects on many cities around the world. Jakarta is a typical urbanized Asian city in Indonesia where flooding presents a consistent challenge. This study aimed to quantify the effects of land use and climate change using a flood inundation model to analyze future urban growth and climate change scenarios. The projected rainfall data of RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3, based on the WRF simulation, were used as inputs for rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simulations in Jakarta. In addition, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, without urban development scenarios, were investigated to determine the effects of urbanization in Jakarta. The results showed that rainfall intensity, peak discharge, and flood inundation generally increased in the high RCP and SSP future scenarios. Significantly, the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario showed a higher peak discharge value than RCP8.5, owing to the combination of land-use change and increased rainfall. We conclude that the effects of urban development on atmospheric and runoff processes should be considered in climate change studies in urban areas.

Cite this article as:
B. Priyambodoho, S. Kure, N. Januriyadi, M. Farid, A. Varquez, M. Kanda, and S. Kazama, “Effects of Urban Development on Regional Climate Change and Flood Inundation in Jakarta, Indonesia,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.17 No.4, pp. 516-525, 2022.
Data files:
  1. [1] B. A. Priyambodoho, S. Kure, R. Yagi, and N. F. Januriyadi, “Flood Inundation Simulations based on GSMaP Satellite Rinfall Data in Jakarta, Indonesia,” Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., Vol.8, Article No.34, 2021.
  2. [2] J. D. Bricker, R. Tsubaki, A. Muhari, and S. Kure, “Causes of the January 2013 canal embankment failure and urban flood in Jakarta, Indonesia,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), Vol.70, No.4, pp. 91-96, doi: 10.2208/jscejhe.70.I_91, 2014.
  3. [3] E. Scoccimarro, S. Gualdi, A. Bellucci, M. Zampieri, and A. Navarra, “Heavy precipitation events in a warmer climate: Results from CMIP5 Models,” J. of Climate, Vol.26, No.20, pp. 7902-7911, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00850.1, 2013.
  4. [4] S. Kure and T. Tebakari, “Hydrological impact of regional climate change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand,” Hydrological Research Letters, Vol.6, pp. 53-58, doi: 10.3178/HRL.6.53, 2012.
  5. [5] Y. Iwami, A. Hasegawa, M. Miyamoto, S. Kudo, Y. Yamazaki, T. Ushiyama, and T. Koike, “Comparative study on climatechange impact on precipitation and floods in Asian riverbasins,” Hydrological Research Letters, Vol.11, No.1, pp. 24-30, doi: 10.3178/hrl.11.24, 2017.
  6. [6] K. Yamamoto, T. Sayama, and Apip, “Impact of climate change on flood inundation in a tropical river basin in Indonesia,” Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Vol.8, Article No.5, doi: 10.1186/s40645-020-00386-4, 2021.
  7. [7] Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations, “World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights,” ST/ESA/SER.A/352, 2014.
  8. [8] G. H. Leavesley, R. W. Lichty, B. M. Troutman, and L. G. Saindon, “Precipitation-runoff modeling system; user’s manual,” Water-Resources Investigations Report 83–4238, U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, 1983.
  9. [9] D. Legesse, C. Vallet-Coulomb, and F. Gasse, “Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in Tropical Africa: case study South Central Ethiopia,” J. of Hydrology, Vol.275, Nos.1-2, pp. 67-85. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00019-2, 2003.
  10. [10] S. J. Burian and J. M. Shepherd, “Effect of urbanization on the diurnal rainfall pattern in Houston,” Hydrol. Process., Vol.19, No.5, pp. 1089-1103, 2005.
  11. [11] X. Gu, Q. Zhang, J. Li, V. P. Singh, and P. Sun, “Impact of urbanization on nonstationarity of annual and seasonal precipitation extremes in China,” J. of Hydrology, Vol.575, pp. 638-655, 2019.
  12. [12] B. Feng, Y. Zhang, and R. Bourke, “Urbanization impacts on flood risks based on urban growth data and coupled flood models,” Natural Hazards, Vol.106, pp. 613-627, doi: 10.1007/s11069-020-04480-0, 2021.
  13. [13] M. Farid, A. Mano, and K. Udo, “Modeling flood runoff response to land cover change with rainfall spatial distribution in urbanized catchment,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), Vol.67, No.4, pp. I_19-I_24, doi: 10.2208/jscejhe.67.I_19, 2011.
  14. [14] M. Farid, A. Mano, and K. Udo, “Urban Flood Inundation Model for High Density Building Area,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.7, No.5, pp. 554-559, 2012.
  15. [15] I. R. Moe, S. Kure, N. F. Januriyadi, M. Farid, K. Udo, S. Kazama, and S. Koshimura, “Future Projection of Flood Inundation Considering Land Use Change and Land Subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia,” Hydrological Research Letters, Vol.11, No.2, pp. 99-105, 2017.
  16. [16] H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar, Y. Fukuda, Y. E. Pohan, and T. Deguchi, “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, Vol.59, No.3, pp. 1753-1771, doi: 10.1007/s11069-011-9866-9, 2011.
  17. [17] H. Park, S. Kwon, and S. Hadi, “Land Subsidence Survey and Policy Development in Pantai Mutiara, Jakarta Bay, Indonesia,” J. of Coastal Research, Special Issue No.75, pp. 1447-1451, 2016.
  18. [18] H. Takagi, M. Esteban, T. Mikami, and D. Fuji, “Projection of coastal floods in 2050 Jakarta,” Urban Climate, Vol.17, pp. 135-145, 2016.
  19. [19] Y. Budiyono, J. C. J. H. Aerts, D. Tollenaar, and J. Ward, “River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol.16, No.3, pp. 757-774, 2016.
  20. [20] N. F. Januriyadi, S. Kazama, I. R. Moe, and S. Kure, “Evaluation of future flood risk in Asian megacities: A case study of Jakarta,” Hydrological Research Letters, Vol.12, No.3, pp. 14-22, 2018.
  21. [21] I. R. Moe, S. Kure, N. F. Januriyadi, M. Farid, K. Udo, S. Kazama, and S. Koshimura, “Effect of Land Subsidence on Flood Inundation in Jakarta, Indonesia,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environment), Vol.72, No.5, pp. I_283-I_289, 2016.
  22. [22] B. A. Priyambodoho, S. Kure, I. R. Moe, and S. Kazama, “Numerical Experiments of Future Land Use Change for Flood Inundation in Jakarta, Indonesia,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environment), Vol.74, No.5, pp. I_265-I_271, 2018.
  23. [23] N. S. Darmanto, A. C. G. Varquez, N. Kawano, and M. Kanda, “Future urban climate projection in a tropical megacity based on global climate change and local urbanization scenarios,” Urban Climate, Vol.29, Article No.100482, 2019.
  24. [24] F. Kimura and A. Kitoh, “Downscaling by Pseudo Global Warning Method,” The Final Report of ICCAP, pp. 43-46, 2007.
  25. [25] K. Riahi et al., “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview,” Global Environmental Change, Vol.42, pp. 153-168, 2017.
  26. [26] C. Dietzel and K. Clarke, “The effect of disaggregating land use categories in cellular automata during model calibration and forecasting,” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, Vol.30, No.1, pp. 78-101. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2005.04.001, 2006.
  27. [27] USGS, PROJECT GIGALOPOLIS, 2010, [accessed February 17, 2017]
  28. [28] C. Guan and P. G. Rowe, “Should big cities grow? Scenario-based cellular automata urban growth modeling and policy applications,” J. of Urban Management, Vol.5, pp. 65-78, doi: 10.1016/j.jum.2017.01.002, 2016.
  29. [29] C. G. A. Varques, N. Darmanto, N. Kawano, S. Takakuwa, M. Kanda, and Z. Xin, “Representative urban growing scenarios for future climate models,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), Vol.73, No.4, pp. I_103-I_108, 2017.
  30. [30] S. Kure and T. Yamada, “Nonlinearity of runoff and estimation of effective rainfall in a slope,” Proc. of the 2nd Asia Pacific Association of Hydrology and Water Resources Conf., Vol.2, pp. 76-85, 2004.
  31. [31] S. Kure, A. Watanabe, Y. Akabane, and T. Yamada, “Field Observations of Discharge and Runoff Characteristics in Urban Catchments Area,” Proc. of the 11th Int. Conf. on Urban Drainage, pp. 1-10, 2008.
  32. [32] P. D. Bates and A. P. J. De Roo, “A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation,” J. of Hydrology, Vol.236, Nos.1-2, pp. 54-77, 2000.
  33. [33] H. Sugawara, R. Oda, and N. Seino, “Urban Thermal Influence on the Background Environment of Convective Precipitation,” J. of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Ser. II, Vol.96A, pp. 67-76, 2018.
  34. [34] M. Yu, Y. Liu, and S. Miao, “Impact of urbanization on rainfall of different strengths in the Beijing area,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol.139, Nos.3-4, pp. 1097-1110, 2020.
  35. [35] J. Singh, S. Karmakar, D. PaiMazumder, S. Ghosh, and D. Niyogi, “Urbanization alters rainfall extremes over the contiguous United States,” Environ. Res. Lett., Vol.15, Article No.074033, 2020.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Jun. 03, 2024