JDR Vol.13 No.5 pp. 860-872
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2018.p0860


Analysis of Flood Inundation in Ungauged Mountainous River Basins: A Case Study of an Extreme Rain Event on 5–6 July 2017 in Northern Kyushu, Japan

Shakti P. C., Tsuyoshi Nakatani, and Ryohei Misumi

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)
3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0006, Japan

Corresponding author

April 11, 2018
August 28, 2018
October 1, 2018
extreme rain, flood inundation, hydrologic modeling, ungauged basin, GSSHA

The heavy rainfall event that occurred on 5–6 July 2017 in Northern Kyushu, Japan, caused extensive flooding across several mountainous river basins and resulted in fatalities and extensive damage to infrastructure along those rivers. For the periods before and during the extreme event, there are no hydrological observations for many of the flooded river basins, most of which are small and located in mountainous regions. We used the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model, a physically based model, to acquire more detailed information about the hydrological processes in the flood-affected ungauged mountain basins. We calibrated the GSSHA model using data from an adjacent gauged river basin, and then applied it to several small ungauged basins without changing the parameters of the model. We simulated the gridded flow and generated a map of the possible maximum flood depth across the basins. By comparing the extent of flood-affected areas from the model with data of the Japanese Geospatial Information Authority (GSI), we found that the maximum flood inundation areas of the river networks estimated by the GSSHA model are sometimes less than those estimated by the GSI, as the influence of landslides and erosion was not considered in the modeling. The model accuracy could be improved by taking these factors into account, although this task would be challenging. The results indicated that simulations of flood inundation in ungauged mountain river basins could contribute to disaster management during extreme rain events.

Cite this article as:
Shakti P. C., T. Nakatani, and R. Misumi, “Analysis of Flood Inundation in Ungauged Mountainous River Basins: A Case Study of an Extreme Rain Event on 5–6 July 2017 in Northern Kyushu, Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.13 No.5, pp. 860-872, 2018.
Data files:
  1. [1] Y. Kwak and and Y. Iwami, “Rapid global exposure assessment for extreme river flood risk under climate change,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.11, No.6, pp. 1128-1136, 2016.
  2. [2] M. Nakamura, S. Kanada, Y. Wakazuki, C. Muroi, A. Hashimoto, T. Kato, A. Noda, M. Yoshizaki, and K. Yasunaga, “Effects of global warming on heavy rainfall during the Baiu season projected by a cloud-system-resolving model,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.3, No.1, pp. 15-24, 2008.
  3. [3] F. Fujibe, N. Yamazaki, and K. Kobayashi, “Long-term changes of heavy precipitation and dry weather in Japan (1901-2004),” J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, Vol.84, No.6, pp. 1033-1046, 2006.
  4. [4] S. Kusunoki, J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, K. Oouchi, and A. Noda, “Global Warming Projection by an Atmospheric Global Model with 20-km Grid,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.3, pp. 4-14, 2008.
  5. [5] IPCC, “Summary for policy makers, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-32, 2014.
  6. [6] K. Toda, “Urban flooding and measures,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.2, No.3, pp. 143-152, 2007.
  7. [7] K. Inoue, “Flood disaster in Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.2, No.1, pp. 3-10, 2007.
  8. [8] G. Mouri, D. Minoshima, V. Golosov, S. Chalov, S. Seto, K. Yoshimura, S. Nakamura, and T. Oki, “Probability assessment of flood and sediment disasters in Japan using the total runoff-integrating pathways model,” Int. J. of Disaster Risk Reduct., Vol.3, pp. 31-43, 2013.
  9. [9] T. Ishigaki, R. Kawanaka, T. Ozaki, and K. Toda, “Vulnerability to underground inundation and evacuation in densely urbanized area,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.11, No.2, pp. 298-305, 2016.
  10. [10] H. Oshikawa, A. Hashimoto, K. Tsukahara, and T. Komatsu, “Impacts of recent climate change on flood disaster and preventive measures,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.3, No.2, pp. 131-141, 2008.
  11. [11] A. Tominaga, “Lessons learned from Tokai heavy rainfall,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.2, No.1, pp. 50-53, 2007.
  12. [12] Y. Shimizu, N. Tokashiki, and F. Okada, “The September 2000 torrential rain disaster in the Tokai region: Investigation of a mountain disaster caused by heavy rain in three prefectures; Aichi, Gifu and Nagano,” J. Natural Disaster Sci., Vol.24, No.2, pp. 51-59, 2002.
  13. [13] T. Sato, T. Fukuzono, and S. Ikeda, “The Niigata flood in 2004 as a flood risk of low probability but high consequence,” A better integrated management of disaster risks: Toward resilient society to emerging disaster risks in mega-cities, TERRAPUB and NIED, pp. 177-192, 2006.
  14. [14] K. Asahiro, M. Tani, and H. Kanekiyo, “Support for farmland restoration through mutual assistance after flood disasters in Hilly and Mountainous areas – Cases of the cities of Yame and Ukiha affected by the torrential rainfall in Northern Kyushu in July 2012 –,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.10, No.5, pp. 794-806, 2015.
  15. [15] S. P. C., R. Misumi, T. Nakatani, K. Iwanami, M. Maki, T. Maesaka, and K. Hirano, “Accuracy of quantitative precipitation estimation using operational weather radars: a case study of heavy rainfall on 9–10 September 2015 in the East Kanto region, Japan,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.11, No.5, pp. 1003-1016, 2016.
  16. [16] S. P. C., T. Nakatani, and R. Misumi, “Hydrological simulation of small river basins in northern Kyushu, Japan during the extreme rainfall event of July 5–6 2017,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.13, No.2, pp. 396-409, 2018.
  17. [17] A report from Disaster Management Agency on damages due to the heavy rainfall and typhoon, Report No.68 (in Japanese), [accessed March 7, 2018]
  18. [18] T. Kojima, K. Takara, and Y. Tachikawa, “A distributed runoff model for flood prediction in ungauged basins,” IAHS Publication No.309, pp. 267-274, 2007.
  19. [19] W. C. Sun, H. Ishidaira, and S. Bastola, “Towards improving river discharge estimation in ungauged basins: Calibration of rainfall-runoff models based on satellite observations of river flow width at basin outlet,” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., Vol.14, No.10, pp. 2011-2022, 2010.
  20. [20] T. Yamanaka and W. Ma, “Runoff prediction in a poorly gauged basin using isotope-calibrated models,” J. Hydrol., Vol.544, pp. 567-574, 2017.
  21. [21] W. W. Zin, A. Kawasaki, W. Takeuchi, Z. M. L. T. San, K. Z. Htun, T. H. Aye, and S. Win, “Flood hazard assessment of Bago river basin, Myanmar,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.13, No.1, pp. 14-21, 2018.
  22. [22] C. W. Downer and F. L. Ogden, “Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydro-logic Analysis (GSSHA) User’s Manual, Version 1.43 for Watershed Modeling System 6.1, System Wide Water Resources Program,” Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps, Res. and Dev. Cent., 2016.
  23. [23] F. L. Ogden, N. R. Pradhan, C. W. Downer, and J. A. Zahner, “Relative importance of impervious area, drainage density, width function, and subsurface storm drainage on flood runoff from an urbanized catchment,” Water Resour. Res., Vol.47, No.12, W12503, 2011.
  24. [24] H. O. Sharif, A. A. Hassan, S. B. Shafique, H. Xie, and J. Zeitler. “Hydrologic modeling of an extreme flood in the Guadalupe river in Texas,” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., Vol.46, No.5, pp. 881-891, 2010.
  25. [25] C. W. Downer and F. L. Ogden, “GSSHA: Model To Simulate Diverse Stream Flow Producing Processes,” J. Hydrol. Eng., Vol.9, No.3, pp. 161-174, 2004.
  26. [26] [accessed December 28, 2017].
  27. [27] R. Sith and K. Nadaoka, “Comparison of SWAT and GSSHA for high time resolution prediction of stream flow and sediment concentration in a small agricultural watershed,” Hydrology, Vol.4, Vol.2, Article 27, 2017.
  28. [28] S. P. C., “Quantitative precipitation estimation and hydrological modeling in Japan,” J. of Japan Soc. of hydrol. and Water Resour., Vol.30, No.1, pp. 6-17, 2017.
  29. [29] S. P. C., M. Maki, S. Shimizu, T. Maesaka, D.-S. Kim, D.-I. Lee, and H. Iida, “Correction of reflectivity in the presence of partial beam blockage over a mountainous region using X-band dual polarization radar,” J. Hydrometeor., Vol.14, No.3, pp. 744-764, 2013.
  30. [30] Activity status for early recovery from the heavy rain disaster in northern Kyushu, July, 2017 (in Japanese), [accessed September 3, 2018]
  31. [31] Y. Kwak, K. Takeuchi, K. Fukami, and J. Magome, “A new approach to flood risk assessment in Asia-Pacific region based on MRI-AGCM outputs,” Hydrological Research Letters, Vol.6, pp. 70-75, 2012.
  32. [32] T. Takahashi, “A review of Japanese debris flow research,” Int. J. Eros. Control Eng., Vol.2, No.1, pp. 1-14, 2009.
  33. [33] S. Tjerry, O. Z. Jessen, K. Morishita, and H. G. Enggrob, “Flood modelling and impact of debris flow in the Madarsoo River, Iran,” WIT Trans. on Ecology and the Environment, Vol.90, pp. 69-78, 2006.
  34. [34] M. Mergili, W. Fellin, S. M. Moreiras, and J. Stotter, “Simulation of debris flow in the Central Andes based on Open Source GIS: possibilities, limitations, and parameter sensitivity,” Nat. Hazards, Vol.61, No.3, pp. 1051-1081, 2012.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Jul. 12, 2024