single-dr.php

JDR Vol.12 No.6 pp. 1139-1150
(2017)
doi: 10.20965/jdr.2017.p1139

Paper:

The Influences of Residents’ Evacuation Patterns in the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake on Public Risk Perceptions and Trust Toward Authorities

Shoji Ohtomo*,†, Reo Kimura**, and Naoshi Hirata***

*Konan Women’s University
6-2-23, Morikita-machi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe 658-0001, Japan

Corresponding author

**School of Human and Environment, University of Hyogo, Hyogo, Japan

***Earthquake Prediction Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Received:
August 1, 2017
Accepted:
November 14, 2017
Online released:
November 29, 2017
Published:
December 1, 2017
Keywords:
Kumamoto earthquake, risk communication, risk perception, similarity, trust
Abstract

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake consisted of a magnitude 6.2 foreshock that occurred on the 14th of April, and a magnitude 7.3 main shock that occurred on the 16th of April. The main shock occurring over the magnitude 6.2 foreshock was not anticipated because the foreshock was originally considered to be the main shock. After the earthquakes occurred, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) discontinued its policy of announcing the probability of aftershock occurrences. The experience of the Kumamoto earthquake and the policy change concerning risk communication may affect the public risk perception of earthquakes, as well as the public trust toward authorities. In this study, we examined the reasons residents made the decision to evacuation both the foreshock and the main shock. Moreover, we investigated how residents perceived subsequent earthquake risk and they evaluate similarity and trust toward the authorities (the JMA, government, mass media, prefecture, and municipality). This study analyzed data from a mail survey implemented by the MEXT of Japan in the areas of the Kumamoto prefecture that were damaged by the earthquake. As a result, there were differences in the reasons for evacuation decisions between the foreshock and the main shock. Although residents decided to evacuate based on a fear of disaster in the foreshock, they decided to evacuate the main shock based on neighborhood communication. Moreover, the residents’ evacuation patterns influenced the earthquake risk perception. As well, the evacuation pattern influenced similarity toward the authorities and then reduced trusts toward the authorities. This study indicates that residents amplified the evaluations of the authorities after the earthquake. The influences of similarities toward the authorities became salient as a determinant of trust. This study reveals features of residents’ risk reactions to the earthquake, and discusses the importance of the similarity of the authorities for disaster risk communication.

Cite this article as:
S. Ohtomo, R. Kimura, and N. Hirata, “The Influences of Residents’ Evacuation Patterns in the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake on Public Risk Perceptions and Trust Toward Authorities,” J. Disaster Res., Vol.12 No.6, pp. 1139-1150, 2017.
Data files:
References
  1. [1] N. N. Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, NY: Random House, 2007.
  2. [2] J. Mochizuki, and N. Komendantova, “In Search of Perfect Foresight? Policy Bias, Management of Unknowns, and What Has Changed in Science Policy since the Tohoku Disaster,” Risk Analysis, Vol.37, No.2, pp. 219-230, 2017. doi:10.1111/risa.12602.
  3. [3] R. Kimura, H. Hayashi, S. Tatsuki, K. Tamura, K. Horie, and A. Kuromiya, “Defined Evacuation and Sheltering Processes of Disaster Victims in the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake,” J. of Social Safety Science, Vol.7, pp. 161-170, 2005.
  4. [4] Hyogo prefecture, “Report on The Results of Survey on Living Reconstruction in 2005,” Retrieved from https://web.pref.hyogo.lg.jp/kk41/documents/000043904.pdf, 2005 [in Japanese, accessed Aug. 1, 2017]
  5. [5] A. Miura, “Social Psychology of Online Communication on 3.11 Disasters in Japan,” The J. of the Institute of Electronics, Information, and Communication Engineers, Vol.95, No.3, pp. 219-223, 2012/03/01, 2012.
  6. [6] Mainichi-Shinbun, “The Japan Meteorological Agency discontinued Announcing The Probability of Aftershock Occurrences in The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Because There is No Precedent,” Mainichi-Shinbun, 26th April, morning editon, 2016 [in Japanese, accessed Aug. 1, 2017]
  7. [7] Yomiuri-Shinbun, “Discontinue Announcing The Probability of Aftershock Occurrences in The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, “Do Not Apply to Experience” The Japan Meteorological Agency,” Yomiuri-Shinbun, 21st April, morning edition, 2016 [in Japanese, accessed Aug. 1, 2017]
  8. [8] J. Michailova, T. Tyszka, and K. Pfeifer, “Are People Interested in Probabilities of Natural Disasters?,” Risk Analysis, Vol.37, No.5, pp. 1005-1017, 2017. doi:10.1111/risa.12685.
  9. [9] R. E. Kasperson, O. Renn, P. Slovic, H. S. Brown, J. Emel, R. Goble, J. X. Kasperson, and S. Ratick, “The Social Amplification of Risk: A Conceptual Framework,” Risk Analysis, Vol.8, No.2, pp. 177-187, 1988. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1988.tb01168.x.
  10. [10] O. Renn, W. J. Burns, J. X. Kasperson, R. E. Kasperson, and P. Slovic, “The Social Amplification of Risk: Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Applications,” J. of Social Issues, Vol.48, No.4, pp. 137-160, 1992. doi:10.1111/j.1540-4560.1992.tb01949.x.
  11. [11] T. Kusumi, R. Hirayama, and Y. Kashima, “Risk Perception and Risk Talk: The Case of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Radiation Risk,” Risk Analysis, 2017. doi:DOI: 10.1111/risa.12784.
  12. [12] T. Kinoshita, “Thought and Technology of Risk and Communication,” Kyoto: Nakanishiya, 2016.
  13. [13] P. Slovic, “Perception of Risk,” Science, Vol.236, No.4799, pp. 280-285, 1987. doi:10.1126/science.3563507.
  14. [14] T. C. Earle, and G. Cvetkovich, Social Trust: Toward a Cosmopolitan Society, Westport, CT: Praeger Press, 1995.
  15. [15] M. Siegrist, T. C. Earle, and H. Gutscher, “Test of a Trust and Confidence Model in the Applied Context of Electromagnetic Field (Emf) Risks,” Risk Analysis, Vol.23, No.4, pp. 705-716, 2003. doi:10.1111/1539-6924.00349.
  16. [16] K. Nakayachi, D. Kudo, and T. Ozaki, “Trust in Organizations Concerned with Risks of the Great East Japan Earthquake,” The Japanese J. of Psychology, Vol.85, No.2, pp. 138-147, 2014. doi:10.4992/jjpsy.85.13014.
  17. [17] S. Ohtomo, H. Osawa, Y. Hirose, and S. Ohnuma, “The Impacts of Fukushima Nuclear Accident on Public Acceptance of Geological Disposal of High Level Radioactive Waste,” Japanese J. of Risk Analysis, Vol.24, No.1, pp. 49-59, 2014. doi:10.11447/sraj.24.49.
  18. [18] V. H. M. Visschers, and M. Siegrist, “How a Nuclear Power Plant Accident Influences Acceptance of Nuclear Power: Results of a Longitudinal Study before and after the Fukushima Disaster,” Risk Analysis, Vol.33, No. 2, pp. 333-347, 2013. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01861.x.
  19. [19] MEXT (Ministry of Education, Sports, Science and Technologyof Japan), Survey Study About the Effect of Information of Aftershock and Impact on Evacuation Activities in the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, 2017.
  20. [20] K. Preacher, and A. Hayes, “Asymptotic and Resampling Strategies for Assessing and Comparing Indirect Effects in Multiple Mediator Models,” Behavior Research Methods, Vol.40, No.3, pp. 879-891, 2008/08/01, 2008. doi:10.3758/BRM.40.3.879.
  21. [21] R. Kimura, “Psychology of Disaster, Disaster Prevention,” Tokyo: Hokuju, 2015.
  22. [22] W. K. Estes, “The Cognitive Side of Probability Learning,” Psychological Review, Vol.83, No.1, pp. 37-64, 1976.
  23. [23] R. H. Turner, “Earthquake Prediction and Public Policy: Distillations from a National Academy of Sciences Report,” VMass Emergencies, Vol.1, No. 3, pp. 179–202, 1976.
  24. [24] P. Slovic, “If I Look at the Mass I Will Never Act: Psychic Numbing and Genocide,” Judgment and Decision Making, Vol.2, No.2, pp. 79-95, 2007.
  25. [25] M. Siegrist, C. Keller, and M.-E. Cousin, “Implicit Attitudes toward Nuclear Power and Mobile Phone Base Stations: Support for the Affect Heuristic,” Risk Analysis, Vol.26, No.4, pp. 1021-1029, 2006. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00797.x.
  26. [26] L. Festinger, “A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance,” Stanford University Press, 1962.
  27. [27] J-CAST News, “A Blind Spot of ‘good faith’ of The Internet Communications in the Torrential Rain in The Kyushu Region,” 12th July, 2017, Retrieved from https://www.j-cast.com/2017/07/12303051.html?p=all [in Japanese, accessed Aug. 1, 2017]
  28. [28] R. Kimura, H. Hayashi, K. Kobayashi, T. Nishino, U. Kenshin, and I. Satoshi, “Development of a Disaster Management Literacy Hub for Collecting, Creating, and Transmitting Disaster Management Content to Increase Disaster Management Literacy,” J. of Disaster Research, Vol.12, No.1, pp. 42-56, 2017.

*This site is desgined based on HTML5 and CSS3 for modern browsers, e.g. Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera.

Last updated on Apr. 19, 2024