Embedding-Based Potential Sales Forecasting of Bread Product
Kohei Takahashi* and Yusuke Goto**
*Graduate School of Software and Information Science, Iwate Prefectural University
152-52 Sugo, Takizawa, Iwate 020-0693, Japan
**College of Systems Engineering and Science, Shibaura Institute of Technology
307 Fukasaku, Minuma-ku, Saitama, Saitama 337-8570, Japan
In this study, we investigate the potential sales forecasts of unhandled bread products in retail stores based on factory shipment data. An embedding-based forecasting method that uses large-scale information network embedding (LINE) and simultaneously considers first- and second-order proximities is developed to define similar neighboring stores using their product–store relationship and to predict their potential sales volume. LINE is a network-embedding method that transforms network data into a low-dimensional distributed representation and requires a low computation time, even when applied to large networks. The results show that our proposed method outperforms a simple prediction method (Baseline) and t-SNE, a well-known dimensionality reduction method for high-dimensional data, in terms of accurate product sales prediction via simulation experiments. Furthermore, we conduct a sensitivity analysis to verify the applicability of our proposed method when the forecasting target is expanded to products sold in fewer stores and in stores with less product variety.
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