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Logit Analysis of Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Famine in Uganda

Washington Okori*, Joseph Obua**, and Venansius Baryamureeba*

*Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Computing and Information Technology, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062 Kampala, Uganda
**Department of Forest Biology and Ecosystems Management, Faculty of Forestry and Nature Conservation, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062 Kampala, Uganda

Received: December 22, 2009

Accepted: February 2, 2010

Keywords: disaster, famine, food insecurity, socioeconomic factors

Journal ref: Journal of Disaster Research, Vol.5, No.2 pp. 208-215, 2010


Socioeconomic factors affecting food security in Uganda were studied in 2004-2005, and secondary agricultural production data collected by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics used to determine famine-prone households. The relationship between predictor and outcome variables was determined using a logistic regression model. Famine risk at different strata of predictive variables was analyzed using bivariate analysis. The model was fitted with 13 factors, with those significantly related to food insecurity found to be distance to gardens, household size, amount of labor input, livestock number, distance to main roads, household income, household head age, and agricultural shock. Further study using a predictive model combining environmental stress and socioeconomic factors would improve food insecurity prediction.
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